Sunday, February 07, 2010

[An alleged] Farewell to Ice : Discovery News
"We've grown back ice in the winter, but that ice tends to be thin and that's the problem," [fraudster] Serreze told Reuters. "You set yourself up for a world of hurt in summer. The ice that is there is also thinner than it was before and thinner ice simply takes less energy to melt out the next summer."   [where's the ice thickness data for the last thirty years?]
...
The pace of the melt, and the consequent feedback loop as high-albedo ice yields to low-albedo water, has caused researchers to change their calculations about the Arctic's future. As David Barber of the University of Manitoba pointed out at a press conference on Friday to announce the initial findings of a two-year study involving 370 scientists from 27 countries, until recently, models predicted the Arctic would be sea ice-free in summer by the year 2100. Today, however, most researchers agree that, at present trends, a more likely date is 2030.
March '09: The 'Global Warming Three' are on thin ice - Telegraph
It took the Watts Up With That? science blog to point out that there is little point in measuring ice thickness unless you do it several years running, and that, anyway, Arctic ice is being constantly monitored by US Army buoys. The latest reading given by a typical sensor shows that since last March the ice has thickened by “at least half a metre”.
2007: Al Gore lays blame for Bali stalemate on U.S. | Reuters
"There's no precedent in history, culture for the radically new relationship between humanity and the planet," he said, citing new evidence this week that the North Pole may be ice-free in summer as soon as 2012.
Sceptic rubbishes computer modelling on climate change | The Australian
CLIMATOLOGISTS were downplaying the uncertainty of the long-term computer models used to predict climate change, a leading sceptic said yesterday, as repercussions spread from the mistaken IPCC claim that the Himalayan glaciers would melt by 2035.

Climate change sceptic William Kininmonth, a former director of the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre, questioned the reliability of long-term predictions, given that the limit of accurate forecasts was about 10 days.

"The whole issue about the global warming scenario is that the uncertainty of computer modelling is being downplayed," he said.
New study using satellite data: Alaskan glacier melt overestimated « Watts Up With That?
Glaciologists at the Laboratory for Space Studies in Geophysics and Oceanography (LEGOS – CNRS/CNES/IRD/Université Toulouse 3) and their US and Canadian colleagues (1) have shown that previous studies have largely overestimated mass loss from Alaskan glaciers over the past 40 years.
Tracking the Earth’s orbit: looking for warming signs « Watts Up With That?

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