Sunday, June 27, 2010

Statistics as Beauty; Global Warming Miscellany; SATs Biased?; More

The problem is that it's the *climate science* which is under contention, not the economics, etc. Instead of bringing in geographically diverse people, they should bring in accredited scientists who have made legitimate criticisms of the models. We need a more diverse group of physicists, climatologists, and meteorologists. And we need more people (I blush to say) people like me, statisticians whose specialty is quantifying uncertainty.

Everybody on the IPCC assumes that the models are good. Why? No tests of predictive performance have been made. Compare the accuracy of your local weather forecast—which is usually at least reasonable—with that of the predictions made by climate models (and environmentalists). How many of them have been right? We need to turn climatology into a more honest science with better measured uncertainty in its predictions.

No comments: