Sunday, July 04, 2010

Observed Global Temperature changes as a Random Walk
A recent refereed journal article from China shows that global temperature changes from 1850 onwards fit a model of purely random changes. Summary below. Full paper here
Best hike at Mount Rainier? Try Burroughs Mountain | OregonLive.com
Elsewhwere in the park, due to continued cool temperatures and lingering snowpack, opening of the Mowich Lake road is being delayed until July 9 (noon). Much snow still remains at the lake and campground and the road into the lake is extremely wet and soft.

Visitors are reminded that a great deal of snow remains on the ground at the higher elevations of the park (six to eight feet at Paradise and Sunrise) and trails remain snow covered.
Consensus over science, cost of warming elusive | Richmond Times-Dispatch
Efforts to combat climate change, such as a tax on carbon to make clean energy more competitive, would probably cause short-term economic suffering such as the loss of jobs in Virginia's coalfields, said David E. Kitchen, a University of Richmond geologist who teaches climate change. But in the long run, Kitchen said, Virginia could benefit by developing clean energy from wind, tides and waves.
...
Kitchen, of the University of Richmond, said dealing with climate change could be a case of pay now, or really pay later. While he doesn't support "changes now at all costs," he puts the odds of environmental disaster from climate change at an 80 percent probability [how was this number calculated?], meaning there is a 20 percent chance that warming will come in on the low end of projections and the world will cope.
...
On the other hand, Kitchen said, "Which of us, if told that there were an 80 percent chance that a tumor would grow and become malignant, would not choose to get treatment as soon a possible?"

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