A 20% Volatility Effect « Musings from the Chiefio

A fairly consistent 10 F of tracking error between either cold phases or warm phases and the overall average. So we have a load of high volatility stations in the GHCN during a cold phase of the PDO, then leaving as we move toward the top of a hot phase. And this is substantially ignored. It would be nearly trivial to get 1 F of “warming” out of this tracking error. Simply mitigate only 90% of it. Even a slight failure to be perfect is sufficient to “create Global Warming” out of nothing but station volatility changes and natural hot / cold cycles like the PDO, AMO, AO, etc.

Extreme cold continues in South America | The SPPI Blog

Strangely, we have seen nothing of the Southern cold reported in the Northern Hemisphere, where the Press are still exercised by the Russian Heatwave, and the “unequivocal” global warming from the NOAA/Met Office State of the Climate Report. It seems not to have been mentioned that the recent Siberian winter was Cold even by Siberian Standards.

“The winter of 2009-10 was one of the most severe in the European part of Russia for more than 30 years, and in Siberia it was perhaps the record-breaking coldest ever,” said Alexander Frolov, head of state meteorological service Rosgidromet. He told reporters that while statistics for the coldest eastern part of Siberia have not yet been thoroughly analyzed, western areas received the second-harshest winter in 110 years. In Far East Russia’s frigid outpost of Oimyakon, the temperature on Jan. 20 plunged to minus 74.0 degrees Fahrenheit, the coldest anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this past winter.”

- Bishop Hill blog - Rees transcript [I've got your overwhelming evidence right here!- There's more CO2 up there now than in 1960!]

[Martin Rees] Of course, I should also emphasise that the science from that group is just one small element in the overall body of evidence on climate change in the past. In my view, the most important piece of evidence that policy makers need to take account of is not the past climate at all but the completely uncontroversial rise in the carbon dioxide concentration over the last 50 years, which is due to, primarily, the burning of fossil fuels. That is, I think, the most important data, and that is not controversial.