Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: The Attribution Trap
With Hill Hopes for Climate Bill Dashed, Advocates Circle Wagons at EPA - NYTimes.com[New Scientist] There is another reason for finding out how much climate change is to blame for various events. "Hundreds of billions of dollars are potentially available [in a UN fund] to help developing countries adapt to climate change," says [Oxford' Myles] Allen. Who gets what share of the funds depends on being able to say which regions have suffered most as a result of climate change. For now, at least, that remains an open question.Read that last paragraph again. The ability of developing countries to access UN funds for adaptation depends upon their ability to attribute specific events to human-caused climate change from greenhouse gas emissions. Because such attribution is not possible, this makes the entire policy basis of the fund flawed. Just imagine the absurd notion of well-meaning UN officials coming to Africa explaining that they have the resources to help, say, malaria victims who have the disease as a result of human-caused climate change, but not any of the other victims of the disease.
Legislative efforts to stymie EPA climate rules have already begun, and more are expected with November elections looming and EPA's first climate rules set to take effect in January.Josh Dorfman: It's a Communication Challenge, Not a Scientific Challenge
Even if you're Al Gore (and maybe especially if you're Al Gore), I caution you against arguing the science of climate change. You cannot change the mind of a global warming skeptic by citing scientific facts. The reason is simple; resistance isn't grounded in facts. Instead, it's grounded in emotion, political ideology and perceived financial self-interest.Fairbanks Daily News-Miner - Joe Miller on the issues
Miller doesn’t doubt that the climate changing, only to what extent humans are causing climate change.
“I think it’s undeniable, that anyone who has looked at the natural record of the Earth can see significant cyclical changes well before the industrial age, so we know the temperature change is part of the process of our existence, and frankly, you’re probably aware in the ’70s there were real concerns about global cooling,” he said.
Miller’s said his concern is that if it hasn’t been definitively proven that humans are causing the climate change, the rush to impose legislation such as the so-called “cap-and-trade” system for regulating carbon dioxide could be economically catastrophic, particularly on Alaska projects such as the proposed natural gas pipeline.
“We haven’t heard there’s man-made global warming,” he said. “Second, even if we proved that, we have not proven we have a solution that works. And third, even if we’ve proven that, we haven’t done a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the solutions like cap-and-trade that Sen. Murkowski has proposed are actually worth the cost to people.”
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