My New Feature Story in the American Prospect: “The Reality Gap” | The Intersection | Discover Magazine
As Emanuel explained in his written testimony, today’s MIT atmospheric-sciences students can do “hand calculations or use simple models” to show why global warming is a serious concern. Such calculations show that the planet will warm somewhere between 2.7 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit if we allow carbon-dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere to double. It’s a result, Emanuel observed, that scientists have understood at least since 1979, when the U.S. National Academy of Sciences released the first in what are now shelves of studies of the subject. You don’t get an atmospheric-sciences degree at MIT–with a climate focus, anyway–if you can’t show on the back of an envelope what much of Congress now calls into question.
...
1. Nullius in Verba Says:
June 13th, 2011 at 1:20 pm
Chris,
Can you show us this “back of an envelope” calculation, please?
Thanks.
2. Chris Mooney Says:
June 13th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
Nullius, this is a warning. Your comments are verging on hectoring at this point.
Posts
3 comments:
Repeating, "Gee, Mr Mooney, we all need a lobotomy!" (as posted July 13, 2009 at Climate Realists). Yes, there are far too many of us over-educated scientists who can trancribe the Kerry Emanual scribbles on the back of an envelope for the laymen. After exposing the KE fraud we can then explain, on the back of several envelopes the REAL science of Earth & CO2. An example is in "OMG...Maximum CO2 Will Warm Earth for 20 Milliseconds" posted at ClimateChangeDispatch.com explains the Thermal Mass of 28 gigatons of CO2 vs 259 trillion cubic miles of mostly molten rock. It also explains the Outgoing Longwave Radiaition (OLR) delay from CO2 impacts. After further study on phase shift during absorption/emission cycle, this delay was reduced to 5 milliseconds.
These back of the envelope calculations by Dr Nasif Nahle are posted at http://www.biocab.org/Mean_Free_Path_Length_Photons.html. Additional calcualtions showing that CO2 actuall 'cools' the Earth are shown at http://ClimateRealists.com/index.php?id=7843
The simplest BoE calculation I can think of is ( in a modern APL ) :
( 279 279.7 ; 280 390 ) / temp change for CO2 change
% %/' r />/ 1.002509 1.392857 / proportionate changes , temp , CO2
%/ r - 1 />/ 0.00702509 / temp change per CO2 change
1.002509 ^ 2 />/ 1.005024 / extrapolated temp change for another additional 39% CO2 change
279 * r />/ 280.4018 / resulting temp .
That is , we might expect another 0.7c increase for another 40% increase in CO2 .
Those calcs are based on the temp of a gray body in our orbit , but would be essentially identical based on our observed perhaps 10c warmer temp .
I sure would like to see the MIT calcs
Assuming a 6 degree increase per doubling of CO2 then the temperature will be 6 degrees hotter if we double CO2. I am a genius. Take that you climate change deniers. I've just proven global warming is entirely man made (sarc). To quote the wise old man who lived down the street "If your grandmother had balls, she'd be your grandfather...."
Post a Comment