Friday, July 29, 2011

Layers and layers of fact-checking fail again at The Guardian: Goldenberg claims that Polarbeargate researcher suggested 25% of swimming bears *drowned*; he actually suggested that only 25% of them *survived*

As I understand it, this guy saw four polar bears swimming, then claims that sometime later, after a storm, he saw three polar bears dead in the water.

Arctic scientist questioned on polar bear toll | Warmist Suzanne Goldenberg | The Guardian
It was the first time government scientists had recorded drowning deaths of polar bears, Monnett told investigators. He and Gleason published their observations in 2006 in the journal Polar Biology.

The paper used the number of polar bear carcasses observed on the flight to suggest 25% of bears had drowned swimming between solid sheets of ice.
From the infamous dead polar bear paper:
Limiting data to bears on transect and not considering bears seen on connect and search segments, four swimming polar bears were encountered in addition to three dead bears. If these bears accurately reflect 11% of bears present under these conditions, then 36 bears may have been swimming in open water on 6 and 7 September, and 27 bears may have died as a result of the high offshore winds. These extrapolations suggest that survival rate of bears swimming in open water during this period was low (9/36=25%).

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