William M. Briggs, Statistician » Reading Spencer’s Radiation Paper; Polar Bears Flap: Scientist Under Investigation
One point of contention is where Monnett said, “These extrapolations suggest that survival rate of bears swimming in open water during this was period was low (9/36)=25%).” That’s the statistic that was picked up by Al “Buy My Carbon Offsets” Gore, and which Gore used to prove that most polar bears would soon be dead.
In a hilarious exchange with investigator Eric May, Monnett tries to deny that the 25% statistic was a statistic:
ERIC MAY: Did they comment at all about any of the stats or –
CHARLES MONNETT: Uh, there’s no stats in [the paper].
ERIC MAY: Well, calculations, for, for example, the 25 percent survival rate.
CHARLES MONNETT: Oh, well, that’s just a mindless thing. That’s in the discussion. Um, that is not a statistic. Um, that’s a ratio estimator. It’s a it’s a fifth grade procedure. Do you have kids?
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