Saturday, August 27, 2011

Consensus on this weekend's forecast: Irene will destroy NYC, or cause wind gusts there, or something

Can we really predict the weather 100 years in advance?

"The storm cannot master its own strength." | GPlus.com
The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.

"North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds."

o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene's eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen -- rising pressure means a weakening storm.

o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.

o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.

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