The Reference Frame: Coldest summer in 20 years or so
Somewhat less extremely, Czechia witnessed the coldest summer in 20 years, too.Mainstream media starting to agree with Svensmark. | ScottishSceptic
This is indeed a cause for celebration. It is a bit of an understatement to say that the next IPCC report on the “effects” of warming is not going to “stoke the flames” of alarmist, given the absence of any substantial trends in extreme weather to fill their report with.William M. Briggs, Statistician » Cosmic Radiation, Clouds, & Global Warming
We can even start to outline the new “consensus” … manmade CO2 is causing some warming, but nothing like the IPCC models with their massive positive feedbacks predict (In other words, they were wrong to take the real CO2 warming and then multiply it by an arbitrary figure to exaggerate the warming). Solar activity is also a strong contributor to warming and there are some effects like melting Arctic ice but again nothing like the doomsday 50-60m of sea level rise (30mm is more likely) or mass extinctions.
Still, old hands in climate science will recall the IPCC’s first report (AR1) eschewed entirely the sun’s role in the climate. The sun was just a bright yellow orb, supplying a constant, fixed, unvarying amount of radiation to Earth. Any changes in the climate caused by non-humans were due to orbital variations, and even these were barely worth mentioning.C3: Latest EU Research Confirms That Predicted Increase In Storminess From Global Warming Has Not Occurred
Each subsequent report allowed a little more respect to the sun, but extra-human causes always played a minority role. It will be fascinating to see how “the” consensus incorporates CLOUD into AR5.
Best guess is that it will garner a footnote, possibly a sentence or two. The excuses for largely ignoring it will be two: as noted the experiments were in the lab and not the real atmosphere, and climatologists will not have had sufficient time to incorporate better cloud physics into their models. It’s a lot of work, you know.
The IPCC and its Climategate scientists predicted that global warming would increase the frequency and intensity of stormy weather. They based these predictions on their "expert" climate models. The prediction fails the empirical test as real world evidence confirms that storminess has not increased.
Esteves et al. studied long term datasets of weather data for the Irish Sea region going back to 1894. Their peer reviewed research found no change for storminess.
No comments:
Post a Comment