Warmist Ted Scambos: Arctic sea ice minimum this year could be 20,000 Manhattans bigger than 2007's minimum; this measurement may be the "best" evidence that trace amounts of CO2 are dangerous

Benchmark Arctic Melt Approaches 2007 Record | Business | The Moscow Times

After a recovery toward the end of the month, an all-time low is "an outside possibility," said Walt Meier, an NSIDC scientist.

"It will be another low year, very likely one of the five lowest," Meier said Friday in an e-mail. "One year doesn't say too much in and of itself, but the long-term downward trend and the series of very low years is indicative of a thinner ice cover and warming temperatures."

The Arctic ice typically melts until September, before freezing again through March. Scientists at the Boulder, Colorado-based center say the declining ice pack is a harbinger of global warming. By 2030 there may "consistently" be summers where little or no ice remains on the ocean, Meier said.

"Arctic sea-ice decline is perhaps the best evidence around that something truly unusual is happening to our climate," Ted Scambos, another NSIDC scientist, said in an e-mail. "Historical records and changes in high Arctic coastal areas that have been icebound for several thousand years indicate that this is not just 'a bad decade to be ice,' but something outside the normal range of climate."

The lowest ice extent recorded in data dating back to 1979 was the 4.1 million square kilometers posted on Sept. 16, 2007. This year's lowest point will probably be 4.3 million to 5.3 million square kilometers, according to Scambos, who said it was a "personal estimate."
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Antarctic sea ice, which is much more driven by the wind, is "slightly" below the average for this time of year, according to Scambos.
...In the Arctic, winds from the south can force ice northward and compress it, which was a "big factor" in 2007, Scambos said.

This year, "it would take a major shift of winds, or warming, to really break" the record since satellite measurements were first taken in 1979, Scambos said. Still, the trend remains downward because of warmer summers, he said. "As summers have warmed, old ice has melted, and less and less ice of more than a few years old has been retained. Old ice is thick ice and can survive one warm season."