Saturday, November 26, 2011

ClimateGate email: "Stupid, politicized action" and "silly oversellings" by the IPCC; Met Office guy admits "the paleo community cannot do stats!"

Email 555:

cc: "Folland, Chris" <>,, Keith Briffa <>, "Brohan, Philip" <>, date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:29:03 +0100 from: subject: Re: FW: More on the "Hocky Stick" to: "Tett, Simon" <>

Simon, I think one should list three publications which have stirred some disucsions, namely ours, the one by Anders Moberg and colleagues and Steve Mcintyre's  in GRL. I would assign the following significance ot these articles (just among us, please): -- ours: methodical basis for hockey stick reconstruction is weak; discussion was unwisely limited by IPCC declaring MBH to be "true". (Stupid, politicized action by IPCC, not MBH's responsbilkity. IPCC did one more of these silly oversellings -  by showing the damage curve by Munich Re without proper caveat in the fig caption); -- Moberg: an alternative suggestion - this may turn out to be more or lesa accurate at a later time, but it is at least a serious hypothesis, which is consistent with the independent bore hole reconstruction and our model simulations. -- Mc&Mc: As far as I can say (we did not redo the analysis, but Francis Zwires did) the identfied glitch is real. One should not do it this way. ...Cheers Hans Hans von Storch
Keith/Hans/Chris, Defra do ask the impossible! Can you help me? Are there other papers I should be aware of?  Hans/Chris are the statistical criticisms of Mackintyre and McKitrick OK? Philip -- do you have any thoughts? [Beyond that the paleo community cannot do stats!] (Keith/Hans we can claim to the EU that SOAP is informing policy now!) Simon Dr Simon Tett  Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office       Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)

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