Saturday, November 26, 2011

ClimateGate email: "Stupid, politicized action" and "silly oversellings" by the IPCC; Met Office guy admits "the paleo community cannot do stats!"

Email 555:

cc: "Folland, Chris" <chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk>, Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de, Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>, "Brohan, Philip" <philip.brohan@metoffice.gov.uk>, Eduardo.Zorita@gkss.de date: Wed, 23 Feb 2005 12:29:03 +0100 from: Hans.von.Storch@gkss.de subject: Re: FW: More on the "Hocky Stick" to: "Tett, Simon" <simon.tett@metoffice.gov.uk>

Simon, I think one should list three publications which have stirred some disucsions, namely ours, the one by Anders Moberg and colleagues and Steve Mcintyre's  in GRL. I would assign the following significance ot these articles (just among us, please): -- ours: methodical basis for hockey stick reconstruction is weak; discussion was unwisely limited by IPCC declaring MBH to be "true". (Stupid, politicized action by IPCC, not MBH's responsbilkity. IPCC did one more of these silly oversellings -  by showing the damage curve by Munich Re without proper caveat in the fig caption); -- Moberg: an alternative suggestion - this may turn out to be more or lesa accurate at a later time, but it is at least a serious hypothesis, which is consistent with the independent bore hole reconstruction and our model simulations. -- Mc&Mc: As far as I can say (we did not redo the analysis, but Francis Zwires did) the identfied glitch is real. One should not do it this way. ...Cheers Hans Hans von Storch
...
Keith/Hans/Chris, Defra do ask the impossible! Can you help me? Are there other papers I should be aware of?  Hans/Chris are the statistical criticisms of Mackintyre and McKitrick OK? Philip -- do you have any thoughts? [Beyond that the paleo community cannot do stats!] (Keith/Hans we can claim to the EU that SOAP is informing policy now!) Simon Dr Simon Tett  Managing Scientist, Data development and applications. Met Office       Hadley Centre (Reading Unit)

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