Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Email 3017: Warmist Phil Jones attempts to explain why 2008 was cooler than 1998

ClimateGate email 3017

My rule of thumb about the ENSO influence is that if you take our SOI, which ranges from ~3 to ~-3, each unit of the SOI explains about 0.06 deg C of global T. SOI also leads, so this reg weight comes from looking at high-freq variations of annual global T values versus July (of year -1) to June of the current year. So 1998 was about 0.15 warmer because of the El Nino and 2008 about 0.10 cooler due to the La Nina. 2008 should be cooler than 1998 due to ENSO by about 0.25. Above just a bit of background as you'll likely have to explain why we're apparently not warming. A lot of the skeptics make a big thing about 1998 and apparent cooling since then. ENSO influence on the year-to-year temps is large compared to the 0.02 deg C per year due to global warming if you assume we are warming at 0.2 deg C per decade. 2008 should be about 0.2 warmer than 1998 due to global warming. The values for 1998 (+0.526) and 2008 (+0.247) don't add up - the ENSO difference is about right but the GW part isn't, but as you know there are a lot of other circulation and other influences in the climate system - which your article will allude to!  [Phil Jones]

Deep Thought by Jack Handey

"Ambition is like a frog sitting on a Venus's-flytrap. The flytrap can bite and bite, but it won't bother the frog because it only has little tiny plant teeth. But some other stuff could happen and it could be like ambition."

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