Thursday, December 15, 2011

Email 3556: From the inside, another glimpse at "consensus" (and the alleged lack of natural variation before 1850)

Email 3556

On May 22, 2009, at 10:51 AM, Keith Briffa wrote:

please accept - the answer is that it is likely someone who might prefer you not to do it Keith

At 18:00 20/05/2009, you wrote: Keith,

You miserable soul! You didn't even give me time to respond to "Manuscript Central" before you asked me to review a paper one minute later. Who is the author. Frankly, if it is someone from Beijing or Xian who hates Lamont and actively uncuts us for doing work in China, I am inclined to decline. That person can kiss my arse.


Ed ================================== Dr. Edward R. Cook Doherty Senior Scholar and Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York 10964 USA Email: drdendro

...ABSTRACT: A tree ring-width record spanning from AD 1377 to 1998 was developed from Tibetan juniper (Cupressus gigantea) growing at sites north of the deep gorge of the Yarlung Tsangbo River of southeast Tibet. A linear regression model between ring width and mean January- June temperature accounts for 35% of January-June temperature variance for the period 1961-1998. Based on this model, we reconstructed January-June temperature variation history for southeast Tibet during the past 622 years. Warm conditions occurred during AD 1385-1418, AD 1443-1466, 1482-1501, 1523-1548, 1570s, 1705-1759, 1770-1790, 1851-1888, 1910s, and 1938-1965, and periods of relatively cold years are identified for AD 1419-1442, 1470s, 1502-1522, 1550-1569, 1610-1640, 1680-1700, 1760s, 1791-1850, 1900s, and 1965-1995. Spatial correlation between tree ring and observed temperatures indicates that the reconstruction is representative of temperature change for southeast Tibet. Regional cold conditions during around AD 1625, 1685, 1760, 1800-1850, 1890-1930 and 1965-1995, and warm conditions around 1710, 1730-1750, 1850-1890 and 1930-1960 can be identified in the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

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