Thursday, December 15, 2011

Susan Solomon claim: "IPCC has placed high priority on communicating uncertainty"

Hegerl et al. react to the Uncertainty Monster paper | Climate Etc.

Gabrielle Hegerl, Peter Stott, Susan Solomon, and Francis Zwiers have published a comment to our paper “Climate Science and the Uncertainty Monster.” Webster and Curry respond. The CRU emails provide some interesting context for this discussion.
Hegerl et al. comment...

IPCC has placed high priority on communicating uncertainty

JC comment:  To me, the emails argue that there is insufficient traceability of the CMIP model simulations for the the IPCC authors to conduct a confident attribution assessment and at least some of the CMIP3 20th century simulations are not suitable for attribution studies.   The Uncertainty Monster rests its case (thank you, hacker/whistleblower).

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