Email 1887, Nov 2001, Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office: "...The increase in heavy rain days is much less (<50%) than it was in 98 (200%)...I am concerned we have enough time to explain these differences, and their implications for confidence in UKCIP02, properly"

The main important changes from UKCIP98 are: (a) all UK dries in summer, summer S UK drying is twice as bad, and annual change is drying not wetting. (b) The increase in heavy rain days is much less (<50%) than it was in 98 (200%). I think the latter change is one we are going to have to manage properly, as water bodies and EA have pretty much accepted the x3 story (which was also borne out from HadRM2, ie the interim scenarios). I am concerned we have enough time to explain these differences, and their implications for confidence in UKCIP02, properly.