A striking point in Fig. 5 is the negative trend over Turkey. One of our Greek partners in ENSEMBLES mailed me once a Climate Research publication (Vol. 30, 161-174, 2006) in which negative trends in Tn_10 were found over parts of Greece.
Figures 8 - 11 show considerable differences between the trends in the WP5.1 gridded observed dataset and those in the ERA40 driven output. I wonder how far these difference could be explained. I showed Fig. 8 to Erik van Meijgaard who is involved in the RACMO2 simulations. The trend differences are sometimes more than 1 degree per decade (in parts of northern Europe in spring, and in southern Norway and small parts of central Europe in autumn). Does this imply that there is no trend, or even a decreasing trend, in the RACMO2 simulation?
My Nobel Prize Proposal
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