Email 5076, Phil Jones: "As you know, ENSO variability is an order of magnitude warmer on the interannual timescale than the greenhouse warming, so dominates on timescales less than 5 years"

Email 5076

If I'm asked about recent trends, I just say that much of the variability from year to year is due to ENSO. As you know, ENSO variability is an order of magnitude warmer on the interannual timescale than the greenhouse warming, so dominates on timescales less than 5 years. We will get another warm year when we get another big El Nino.  [Phil Jones, 2008]