Email 4653, March 2002, Geoff Jenkins of the Met Office: "...we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise"

Email 4653

Re your last para: "will" is a difficult verb to use when we quote numbers. We cannot say the temperature rise will be between XdegC and YdegC, even when those numbers span the High to Low Emissions range - because they are all from Hadley model for a start. UNLESS we do as I suggested and preface the stsments with WE PREDICT THAT: Without this preface, we can only use "will" when we have complete confidence in the direction, ie Temperatures will rise.

I know everyone wants to see more certainty, but we have to maintain sceintific credibility.