An Example Of The Reasons That Skillful Multi-Decadal Predictions Of Climate Change Has Not Been Achieved – “Long Tails In Regional Surface Temperature Probability Distributions With Implications For Extremes Under Global Warming” By Ruff and Neelin 2012

http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2012/02/28/an-example-of-the-reasons-that-skillful-multi-decadal-predictions-of-climate-change-has-not-been-achieved-long-tails-in-regional-surface-temperature-probability-distributions-with-implications-for

The recognition that the models need to skillfully predict changes in the statistics of climate variables (and they have not in hindcasts), if properly recognized by the IPCC impacts assessment group, would have major implications. So far they have mostly ignored this issue when seeking to convince people as to why the multi-decadal regional and global modal predictions should be considered robust.