Sunday, February 12, 2012

Some Royal Society guy with over 500 peer reviewed papers claims that sea levels are going to rise five meters by 2100; some other guy who's evidently not also an idiot scoffs

Bring on the National Climate Change Debate! | Troy Media

Late January I went up to the Simon Fraser University’s mountain top campus to hear a Royal Society of Canada lecture by Dr. John Clague, the Shrum Research Professor and CRC Chair in Natural Hazard Research, a quaternary geologist with the Department of Earth Sciences at SFU. ...After careful explanation of current conditions associated with climate change in the post-industrial revolution world, he concluded that a five-metre rise in coastal sea levels was coming our way by the end of the current century. To be fair, he offered the five-metre figure as a reasonable mean; it could be somewhat lower or considerably higher. The bottom line, however, is that sea levels are going up, based on changes already observed and locked-in to our global climate regime.

...The following week I traveled to Calgary for a business meeting with oil patch folk with whom I have worked for years. During the opening pleasantries I told the story of Dr. Clague’s lecture, and the impending five-metre sea level rise. Immediately one of my colleagues took blunt issue. “Those are the same guys who said this would be one of the coldest winters on record!” I countered that, “Dr. Clague is a member of the Royal Society, a scientist who has over 500 peer reviewed research papers to his credit . . .” “I’m a scientist too!” came the rejoinder. “The world’s climate has always been changing . . .” I stopped short. It would be pointless to continue, and I valued my colleague’s friendship.  But I was deeply struck by the rapidity of the denial, the lack of any quarter, and the certainty of opinion.

2 comments:

Edward Spalton said...

I heard Professor Nils Axel Morner, probably one of the world's leading authorities on sea levels, - and he says it ain't happening - not in the Maldives, not on European coasts.

In the Maldives, some of the evidence of older shoreline, now considerably inland and above seal level, was tampered with between his visits.

However, he did admit to being at something of a disadvantage because he works from measurements and observations rather than computer programs. He is rather an ebullient character and not at all like the image conjured up by the words "Swedish professor".

Robert Austin said...

Nothing astonishing in the rapidity of dismissal by the Calgary colleague.The projected 5.5 metre rise in sea level over this century is simply ludicrous, "500 peer reviewed papers" notwithstanding. The author puts forth that he did not pursue the subject as he did not want to jeopardize a friendship. Why do I suspect that the actual reason for not pursuing clarification was that the author was ill equipped to discuss the matter and did not want to hear an argument contrary to his precious faith in authority.