Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Warmist Jeff Masters: "it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events"

Meteorologist Masters: "The Climate Has Shifted to a New State Capable of Delivering Rare & Unprecedented Weather Events" | ThinkProgress
Jeff Masters: The natural weather rhythms I’ve grown used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth’s major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged; extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 – 2011. The laws of physics demand that the huge amount of heat-trapping gases humans are pumping into the atmosphere must be significantly altering the fundamental large-scale circulation pattern of the atmosphere. Unprecedented behavior like we’ve witnessed in the configuration of the winter jet stream over North America–with the four most extreme years since 1865 occurring since 2006–could very well be due to human-caused climate change. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. Human emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide are the most likely cause of such a shift in the climate.
Christine Shearer: Having really looked closely at the weather for a while now, is there something that stands out to you most?
Jeff Masters: The atmosphere I grew up with no longer exists. My new motto with regards to the weather is, “expect the unprecedented.”
Christine Shearer: Anything you would like to say?
Jeff Masters: Stronger hurricanes, bigger floods, more intense heat waves, and sea level rise have been getting many of the headlines with regards to potential climate change impacts, but drought should be our main concern. Drought is capable of crashing a civilization. To illustrate, drought has been implicated in the demise of the Mayan civilization in Mexico, the Anasazis of the Southwest U.S., and the Akkadians of Syria in 2200 B.C. The Russian heat wave and drought of 2010 led to a spike in global food prices that helped cause unrest in Africa and the Middle East that led to the overthrow of several governments. It’s likely that global-warming intensified droughts will cause far more serious impacts in the coming decades, and drought is capable of crashing our global civilization in a worst-case scenario, particularly if we do nothing to slow down emissions of carbon dioxide.
Extreme weather years like 2010 and 2011 are very likely to increase in frequency, since there is a delay of several decades between when we put heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere and when the climate fully responds. This is because Earth’s oceans take so long to heat up when extra heat is added to the atmosphere (think about how long it takes it takes for a lake to heat up during summer.) Due to this lag, we are just now experiencing the full effect of CO2 emitted by the late 1980s; since CO2 has been increasing by 1 – 3% per year since then, there is a lot more climate change “in the pipeline” we cannot avoid.
We’ve set in motion a dangerous boulder of climate change that is rolling downhill, and it is too late to avoid major damage when it hits full-force several decades from now. However, we can reduce the ultimate severity of the damage with strong and rapid action. A boulder rolling downhill can be deflected in its path more readily early in its course, before it gains too much momentum in its downward rush. For example, the International Energy Agency estimates that every dollar we invest in alternative energy before 2020 will save $4.30 later. There are many talented and dedicated people working very hard to deflect the downhill-rolling boulder of climate change–but they need a lot more help very soon.

4 comments:

Sean said...

I guess Masters doesn't recollect what the weather was like in the 1970's. As Judith Curry says, it takes a serious case of amnesia to look at today's weather and call it unprecedented. And then there is the change in the state of the sun....

papertiger said...

Well isn't he just full of fire and brimstone, crouching there behind the Think Progress moderators.

Come out from behind your firewall, Jeff. Show us what you are really made of.
That is if you have strength of conviction.

Anonymous said...

By extreme he means colder than normal ... right?

" the four most extreme years since 1865 occurring since 2006"

In the US, if you sort by year, with 116 being the hottest year, 2011,2010,2009 and 2008 didn’t even break 100.

http://i44.tinypic.com/eppxls.jpg

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html

Anonymous said...

Oops. Previous post shows Winter US temperatures.