Saturday, June 30, 2012

How they do things at Yale?: Economics professor William Nordhaus constructs a spreadsheet with hundreds? of questionable assumptions to calculate that the cost of waiting 50 years before trying to prevent CO2-induced bad weather is $3.5 trillon

NRRB RICE
"Is the difference between acting now and waiting fifty years indeed “insignificant economically”? Given the importance attached to this question, I recalculated this figure using the latest published model. When put in 2012 prices, the loss is calculated as $3.5 trillion, and the spreadsheet is available on the web for those who would like to do it themselves. [1] If, indeed, the climate skeptics think this is an insignificant number, they should not object to spending much smaller sums for slowing climate change starting now."
Footnote [1]: For those who would like to see the Excel spreadsheet model on which these calculations were made to check them, or try other ones, it is available [here]. Download the Excel program, go to the sheet named “50yeardelay” and follow the instructions there. You will be able to verify the number in the text and do other experiments as well.
For those who would like to follow this up, I have made the RICE-2010 model available to calculate the impact of policy changes. The policy change that is tested here is the impact of delaying introducing policies to slow climate change for 50 years. The spreadsheet is available at click here. Go to the page "50yeardelay" and follow the directions there to check the answer in the article.
John Maynard Keynes - Wikiquote
Misattributed
  • It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.
    • Not attributed to Keynes until after his death. The original quote comes from Carveth Read and is:
    • It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.
Gilligan's Island (1964) - Trivia - IMDb
Thurston Howell III went to Harvard. Howell would call an inferior a "Yale Man".

1 comment:

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