Saturday, August 04, 2012

Gavin Schmidt on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, due to be released Oct. 2014: "The AR5 report is pretty much 90% written, and the broad outlines have been known for ages"

RealClimate: Let the games begin!
...most odd of all was the framing – a ‘converted skeptic’ being convinced by his studies that the planet has indeed warmed and that human activity is the cause – which as Mike and Ken Caldiera pointed out has been known for almost 2 decades.

Not wanting to be upstaged, plenty of ‘unconverted skeptics’ – including Anthony Watts and Ross McKitrick decided to stage dramatic press events and release barbs of their own. This was followed by a general piling on of commenters and bloggers trying to spin the events in their preferred direction combined with plenty of cluelessness in the general media about exactly who these people are (no-one special), what earth-shattering discovery had been made (none) and what it all means (not a lot).
...
The actual trigger for all this hoopla is the deadline for papers that can be cited in the Second Order Draft of the new IPCC report. They needed to have been submitted to a journal by Tuesday (31 July) to qualify. Of course, they also need to be interesting, relevant and known to the IPCC lead authors. But there seems to be far too much emphasis being put on this deadline. The AR5 report is pretty much 90% written, and the broad outlines have been known for ages. Very few of the papers that have been submitted this week are anything other than minor steps forward and only a small number will be accorded anything other than a brief mention in AR5, and most not even that.
...
But still the games go on. Senate hearings are one of the longest running games of political theatre going – where the Senators pretend to listen to the panelists and the panelists pretend that this is an efficient way to inform policymakers. This week’s was little different from the ones in the past – some earnest submissions from the mainstream, and a cherry-pickers delight of misinformation from the Republican invitee, John Christy, who even quoted the woefully inept first draft of the Watts paper as if it meant something.
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
AR5 Synthesis Report (SYR) - October 2014 The AR5 will provide an update of knowledge on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Gavin Schmuck says:
a cherry-pickers delight of misinformation from the Republican invitee, John Christy, who even quoted the woefully inept first draft of the Watts paper as if it meant something.

Miao Gavin luv - BUT: who is the greatest 'cherry picker of them all'? - Ask Ken..... or E Mann....

When you've got summat to say - pipe up, otherwise get back under the stone with your other pond life mates.