Crime, Weather, and Climate Change by Matthew Ranson :: SSRN
Abstract:
This paper estimates the impact of climate change on the prevalence of criminal activity in the United States. The analysis is based on a 50-year panel of monthly crime and weather data for 2,972 U.S. counties. I identify the effect of weather on monthly crime by using a semi-parametric bin estimator and controlling for county-by-month and county-by-year fixed effects. The results show that temperature has a strong positive effect on criminal behavior, with little evidence of lagged impacts. Between 2010 and 2099, climate change will cause an additional 30,000 murders, 200,000 cases of rape, 1.4 million aggravated assaults, 2.2 million simple assaults, 400,000 robberies, 3.2 million burglaries, 3.0 million cases of larceny, and 1.3 million cases of vehicle theft in the United States.
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4 comments:
This is an hysterical, insane, prophecy, that assumes man is but a thoughtless creature, not a thinking being responsible for his reactions to his environment. As such, it is all too likely to be ironically, and tragically, self-fulfilling (i.e., BELIEF in catastrophic climate change can bring about division and hate among men, and thus cause these things), if those wallowing in the insanity continue to deny their own perfectly ordinary experience of a stable (but of course, widely variable, yet periodic) climate system.
Who paid for this profound stupidity and how much was it ?
It really does make scientific sense. All that hot weather will cause women to wear skimpier clothing and the men will notice and rape will occur. When do I get my grant? Sounds as good as the other BS, if not better!
Soooo, if we actually go into an ice age--even just a mini-ice age--instead of the global warming scenario, does that mean crime will go down? Will a full-blown ice age bring crime to a stand still completely? Hmmm? It is a puzzlement.
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