Burning question in the New York Times: If CO2 is supposed to cause increases in seasonal average monsoon rainfall over the South Asia region, should we blame CO2 for *decreases* in monsoon rainfall over the South Asia region?

Q. and A.: Climate Change and the Monsoon - NYTimes.com

The current year is already facing a deficit in the monsoon of around 14.4 percent (85.6 percent of normal rainfall), with one month to run, and again, a central Pacific El Niño may be the cause. However, this is not to say that global warming could not be involved.

What we do know from future model projections is that increases in greenhouse gas concentrations alone generally cause increases in the seasonal average monsoon rainfall over the South Asia region. This is mainly related to an increase in the supply of moisture to India as the monsoon winds pass over the now-warmer Indian Ocean.