Media: predicting the odds

...now we have the Telegraph reporting that snow and freezing gale force winds have caused travel chaos across the country as Britain faces some of the coldest temperatures of the winter.

To be fair, the "experts" are not involved in the Star forecast. The paper is relying on a Ladbrokes spokeswoman, on the basis of bets placed, saying that, "we're confident it’s going to be the hottest March ever rather than the coldest"

Record cold in Switzerland

This winter has “cracked” previous cold records, says this Google translation.

Let’s play hockey – again | Climate Etc.

While the MWP did not completely disappear in this new paper, it turned into a <0.1°C blip colder than 1961- 1990. This is quite curious.
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Mike’s Nature trick seems to be now a standard practice in paleo reconstructions. I personally don’t see how this analysis says anything convincing about climate variability on the time scale of a century.

Michael Bloomberg and the Perils of Micromanagement

In a self-governing republic, one would expect most citizens to be able to decide for themselves how thirsty they are and what they like to drink – especially when they pay for it themselves

Principia Scientific Intl - Chaos

The behaviour of the sun, volcanic eruptions, and even earthquakes, are chaotic. The solar wind, which influences cloud formation, is also chaotic6

To summarise: there are many phenomena whose future behaviour is not currently capable of being forecast successfully by a mathematical model. One of them is the climate.

Admittedly the IPCC do not claim that they can do it. All they can do is provide “projections” .

It is regrettable that so many people do not realise this