Saturday, August 31, 2013

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THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds cloud assumptions in climate models could be incorrect by factor of 2
More problems for climate models: A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres finds that models must take into account not only the presence or absence of clouds but also how clouds are stacked vertically. The authors find that changes in vertical stacking of clouds can change radiative forcing assumptions by a factor of two [100%]. However, state of the art climate models do not take vertical stacking into consideration, and most global datasets of cloudiness also do not contain this information. "Clouds, which can absorb or reflect incoming radiation and affect the amount of radiation escaping from Earth's atmosphere, remain the greatest source of uncertainty in global climate modeling," and according to this paper, that uncertainty has just doubled from what was previously thought.
THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Why the forthcoming UN IPCC Report is already toast
The IPCC is set to release its latest Assessment Report 5 [AR5] in about 1 month, yet the report will be dead on arrival and hopelessly out-of-date in light of recent inconvenient peer-reviewed papers published after the cut-off date for inclusion, as well as papers published before the cut-off date which the UN continues to ignore. Since almost the entire report hinges on the output of climate models, and those models have recently been falsified at a confidence level of >98% over the past 15 years, and falsified at a confidence level of 90% over the past 20 years, the entire report and its Summary for Policymakers are already invalidated even before publication.
Twitter / RyanMaue: El Reno tornado reclassified ...
El Reno tornado reclassified from EF-5 to EF-3 highlighting some debate at the time about using radar wind data
Twitter / BjornLomborg: Amazing: More than half the ...
Amazing: More than half the world's population lives within this circle.
Posted by at 5:52 AM

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