Sunday, September 22, 2013


Update On My Climate Model (Spoiler: It’s Doing a Lot Better than the Pros) | Climate Skeptic
The decisions of climate modelers do not always make sense or seem consistent. The best framework I can find for explaining their choices is to hypothesize that every choice is driven by trying to make the forecast future temperature increase as large as possible. In past IPCC reports, modelers refused to acknowledge any natural or cyclic effects on global temperatures, and actually made statements that a) variations in the sun’s output were too small to change temperatures in any measurable way and b) it was not necessary to include cyclic processes like the PDO and AMO in their climate models.

I do not know why these decisions were made, but they had the effect of maximizing the amount of past warming that could be attributed to CO2, thus maximizing potential climate sensitivity numbers and future warming forecasts. The reason for this was that the IPCC based nearly the totality of their conclusions about past warming rates and CO2 from the period 1978-1998. They may talk about “since 1950″, but you can see from the chart above that all of the warming since 1950 actually happened in that narrow 20 year window. During that 20-year window, though, solar activity, the PDO and the AMO were also all peaking or in their warm phases. So if the IPCC were to acknowledge that any of those natural effects had any influence on temperatures, they would have to reduce the amount of warming scored to CO2 between 1978 and 1998 and thus their large future warming forecasts would have become even harder to justify.
Wind Energy Gets Away With Murder - Forbes
I’m not sure what all the fuss is about. So Wind Farms kill eagles. It’s not like we don’t kill beautiful endangered animals all the time. True, these are federally-protected and they’re an iconic symbol of our democracy. But hey, who minds using taxpayer dollars to kill a few icons?
Green Fiasco: Only 12 Homes Take Up Green Deal | The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF)
The government has billed its Green Deal as “the most ambitious home improvement programme since the second world war”, but it has now been revealed that just 12 homeowners are making repayments through its finance package for energy-efficient work carried out on their property.
The Climate-Change Circus | National Review Online
The commonsense reaction to this should be that it is not the climate that needs fixing but the climate models. And some humility from climate scientists might not come amiss. The certainties in which they express themselves have instead been shown by the evidence of nature to be only expressions of how little they know. The prime purpose of the IPCC is not the disinterested pursuit of knowledge, however, but rather keeping the climate-change show on the road.

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