More on groupthink

Earlier, I posted this general information about groupthink. Specifically, how could groupthink have led to mis-IDs in Arkansas?

Let's start with these three pieces of background information:
1. Here's a snippet from an Arkansas Times article:
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Sparling also wrote in his posting, “I also (and I hesitate to say this) saw a Pileated woodpecker that was way too big, the white and black colors seemed to be reversed on the wings, and the white was yellowish off white. You birders know what is inferred, but I don’t have the conviction to say.”
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2. In the same article, after describing the Gallagher/Harrison sighting, it says:
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Sparling, who’d gone upriver a way because, he said, the two were too noisy for him, returned. When he saw the state they were in, it sank in that he really had seen an ivory-billed woodpecker.
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3. On the day of the announcement, in this Q-and-A session, Gallagher talks about his sighting. He talks about how important it was that Harrison was there at the time. Gallagher said "I may not have mentioned it otherwise".

Given the three points above, I think these three people may have fallen victim to groupthink. There are some interesting feedback loops where an incorrect idea can be apparently reinforced.

Sparling saw an intriguing bird, but was skeptical of his own sighting. Harrison and Gallagher, after talking to Sparling, began to believe that Sparling had seen an Ivory-bill. Believing that Sparling had seen an Ivory-bill in the area, Harrison and Gallagher glimpsed a bird and both simultaneously shouted "Ivory-bill"! Influenced by each other, those two became convinced that they had seen an Ivory-bill. Sparling, seeing how convinced those two were, then became convinced that he had seen an Ivory-bill.

I think the groupthink may have snowballed later that spring, as more searchers headed out, each armed with the idea that a confirmed Ivory-bill was present. Eventually, we get seven "robust" Ivory-bill sightings, all based on maybe one fieldmark (too much white on the upperwing for a Pileated). No one seems very concerned that one or more Pileateds in the area did have too much white in the upperwing for an ordinary Pileated.

(Some of David Sibley's thoughts on birding "group hysteria" are here).