Probability that searchers in Florida have had (and will continue to have) numerous tantalizing glimpses of birds that could be Ivory-bills--100%My estimated probabilities from December '05 are here.
Probability that ARUs and searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous tantalizing kent-like calls--100%
Probability that ARUs and searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous tantalizing double-raps--100%
Probability that searchers in Florida have detected (and will continue to detect) numerous examples of tantalizing bark peeling--100%
Probability that searchers in Florida have captured (and will continue to capture) additional video clips blurry enough to be inconclusive--99%
Probability that searchers in Florida have captured (or will ever capture) definitive proof that the Ivory-bill lives--less than 1%
Friday, September 22, 2006
More estimated probabilities
As of 9/22/06, I estimate these probabilities:
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18 comments:
Well Tom, one thing has changed since 12/05. At that time your 90% probability that the alleged Arkansas bird would eventually be claimed by numerous believers to have been the last of its kind sounded good. Now its become clear that view will never gain a foothold. Believers have clearly shifted to the opposite extreme: "They're everywhere and it's just a matter of time until we see them."
Believers, rather than acknowledging an obligation to deal with the evidence, particularly the failures of the Arkansas searches, have abandoned the evidence completely and instead now float free of evidentiary constraints in a world of pure fantasy.
It's sobering to think that this is the progress we've made in recent months.
Tom,
I think you may have gone one prediction post too far. I don’t think Ornithologists are lemmings. If one jumps off a cliff without a parachute, I’m pretty sure the rest are not going to follow. Even in your original predictions, you predicted a 99% chance that more blurry video would be produced, but only a 30% chance that CLO would release such video. So you recognize that Ornithologists do learn, at least, as much as dogs do.
I guess it gets down to this. If the effort in Florida is run by an official institution of higher education led by a Professor of distinguished reputation, then surely your predictions will not come true. I would trust that his colleagues in the department would tie him in a chair rather than let him present at AOU or anywhere for that matter.
But if the effort in Florida is run by “stringers and dudes” as our British friends like to say, well then your post is well taken. I suppose.
TB
Well, I have the inside scoop and birds are in at least three states.
Not going to be more specific than that because you cynical, negative twirps don't deserve anymore.
Regarding the USFWS recovery plan due out September 30, there is now new information available, i.e. the reports from Florida. This will require reevaluation of existing data and delay release of the report 6-9 months. I know this because as a Federal contractor any excuse is used to delay, change, and alter a delivery date to justify additional funding and support for a project. The Florida reports just keeps the ball rolling and lets those responsible for the recovery plan stratagize on how to create Lazarus.
< Anonymous said...
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< Well, I have the inside scoop and birds are in at least three states.
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Let me guess: 1) decomposition. 2) denial, and 3) derangment (the observers' that is).
Hey there Fishcrow. How's the Pearl? How many IBWOs have you seen so far? Look low, apparently they have a new tactic in remaining undetected: they are trying to sink watercraft. Hope you can swim.
anonycrow wrote:
"Well, I have the inside scoop and birds are in at least three states.
Not going to be more specific than that because you cynical, negative twirps don't deserve anymore."
Then verifiable evidence is just around the corner. Whether we deserve it or not, that is what we expect.
Remember that the only way that these IBWO would be truly impossible to document is if they don't exist.
Show me some proof that doesn't require misguided analysis to draw conclusions.
An Anonymous said...
"Well, I have the inside scoop and birds are in at least three states."
I have one of those inside scoops too and it keeps the kitty litter box fresh as a spring morning. Don't tell Cornell how handy they are. They will likely start selling one with a handle shaped like an IBWO. I can see their marketers now:
"Get the most recent IBWO scoop and support science and conservation at the same time"
Interesting to find that IBWOS are now thought to be in at least three states while True Believers are known to be in only one state - denial.
But I am rather sure I know what state the last verifiable IBWO was in – advanced decomposition.
Thank you. Thank you very much! I’ll be here all week.
Again, any PUBLIC wagers (anonymous responses don't count) on whether the Florida rumors turn out to be bona fide IBWOs or another bust? I'd love to see how many skeptics are willing to put their arse on the line. What prizes should the winners receive?
I love the way believers post comments here saying "..I know where populations of Ivory-bills are but I'm not telling you Skeptics because, first, you won't believer me and, second, you'll call me a nut."
It's almost as if we don't have to do anything anymore. They are doing our Skeptic job for us.
So just sit back and relax, Skeptics!
"I'd love to see how many skeptics are willing to put their arse on the line."
H-E-L-L-O...where are you?
You should have left the odds to a professional.
talkintough wrote:
"Again, any PUBLIC wagers (anonymous responses don't count) on whether the Florida rumors turn out to be bona fide IBWOs or another bust? I'd love to see how many skeptics are willing to put their arse on the line. What prizes should the winners receive?"
How about putting your arse on the line first? I'd like to know who I'd be taking money from. Or maybe you're really just talking bollocks.
"So just sit back and relax, Skeptics!"
That's what you guys do anyway, just sit back, relax, and try to shoot down any attempts to preserve habitat for any possible IBWO's or other birds living in those areas.
C'mon, man. Step up and say the probability of ever getting definitive proof is 0%! You know you want to.
Any advice people care to give Dr. Hill before he goes public?
Mine is to learn some lessons from the Cornell fiasco. Be honest with yourself about what you have for evidence with respect to what should be expected for a claim of this magnitude. If it's not definitive, say so. Statements like "We're convinced of the IBWO's continued existence based on our sightings, but we understand the high standards that ornithologists and birders expect so we're mounting a search to produce the documentation that everyone demands and should expect." could be respected by most people.
Additionally the doubter in me (I'd love to be proved wrong) would suggest that he read "The Ravin'", that is truly a classic:
http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2006/07/some-humor.html
In this interlude before the next chapter of the Ivorybill story begins people might want to take a look at:
http://www.ivorybillwatcher.com/
I think that is the BEST ivorybill related footage since the 30's. Simply brilliant!
Never make a bet with a practical joker.
Interesting to find that IBWOS are now thought to be in at least three states while True Believers are known to be in only one state - denial.
But I am rather sure I know what state the last verifiable IBWO was in – advanced decomposition.
Very very good !!!
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