Monday, February 02, 2009

Accelerating Alaskan tundra melt: Another bogus scare

Climate fraudsters want us to believe that the Alaskan tundra is melting at an ever-increasing rate--once humans supposedly started the process, feedbacks are positive as more greenhouse gases are released, which causes even more melting, etc. I've often heard that the "tundra travel" season has been reduced from 200 days to 100 days recently. But is that true?

In a word, no. Check out the data below. During the Clinton/Gore administration, the travel season did indeed get "down" to near 100 days, but did alleged positive feedbacks cause that number to continue dropping each year? Absolutely not.

By Bush the Younger's second term, the number was repeatedly back up around 150 days, and judging by an "early" Dec 19 opening this year, the travel season may be well over 100 days again this year. Note that we were in a warm PDO phase for decades recently, and no one really knows what the numbers will be during decades of a cold PDO phase.

From the 2007 Alaska Climate Impact Assessment [PDF, page 44]:

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Some background information:

At around the 4:45 mark of the recent video here, alarmist Dan Weiss makes the bogus "was 200/now 100" days claim
Dan Weiss of George Soros' Center for American Progress
Andrew Revkin, Oct '04: Big Arctic Perils Seen in Warming, Survey Finds
Alaska has already seen the "tundra travel" season on the North Slope shrink to 100 days from about 200 days a year in 1970.
APPENDIX D: History of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Tundra Travel Management 1969 -2003
While both the shortening winter work season and climate and tundra active layer data collected by researchers in the Alaskan arctic exhibit a downward trend, the variety of methods used over the years by DMLW to measure the hardness of the tundra makes it difficult to conclude exactly what portion of the shrinking season is due to climate change, and what portion is due to changes in DMLW measuring techniques.
From fraudster Al Gore's book "An Inconvenient Truth, page 135:
The graph below shows the number of days each year that the tundra in Alaska is frozen solidly enough to drive on.

Currently, the number has fallen to fewer than 80 days per year.

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