Arctic ice melt could pause in near future, then resume again | UCAR
BOULDER—Although Arctic sea ice appears fated to melt away as the climate continues to warm, the ice may temporarily stabilize or somewhat expand at times over the next few decades, new research indicates.
The computer modeling study, by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, reinforces previous findings by other research teams that the level of Arctic sea ice loss observed in recent decades cannot be explained by natural causes alone, and that the ice will eventually disappear during summer if climate change continues.
But in an unexpected new result, the NCAR research team found that Arctic ice under current climate conditions is as likely to expand as it is to contract for periods of up to about a decade.
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This study was based on a single computer ice model. As stated in a recent Science report I reviewed on the Resilient Earth website, current ice models have proven to be unreliable and unable to faithfully recreate actual ice fluctuations. This based on empirical data, not computer hokum. Also, the lead author, Jennifer Kay, makes the ludicrous statement: “We can’t measure natural variability now because, when temperatures warm and the ice thins, the ice variability changes and is not entirely natural.” As stated in the Science report, 6,000 years ago the indisputably natural temperatures north of Greenland were 4°C higher and there was only half as much ice as during the “record low” of 2007. Presumably, that ice was thinner than today's as well, does that make it “unnatural?” This NCAR study is totally specious.
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