Monday, December 19, 2011

Uh oh: Phil Jones on major IPCC model: "We can't just blindly take HadCM3 as a future scenario. We need some justification"

ClimateGate email 4506

The second comment is even worse. We are supposed to put more emphasis on future trends, keeping analysis of observed trends to a minimum. If I was a reviewer of any paper coming from this project I would ask what has been happening in reality and how well does HadCM3 simulate this. Also UMIST will be looking at solar radiation and vapour pressure in their simulation models. Can you tell me how well these variables are simulated - spatially and temporally ? If HadCM3 is not great for these variables and it models different extreme temperature changes to reality over recent decades, what confidence can we put on the future ? We can't just blindly take HadCM3 as a future scenario. We need some justification.  [Phil Jones]

Hat tip: AJ

HadCM3: Information from Answers.com

HadCM3 (abbreviation for Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3) is a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) developed at the Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom.[1][2][3] It was one of the major models used in the IPCC Third Assessment Report in 2001.

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