This is confusing: If climate realists are worse than Hitler for mentioning the potential warming influence of natural factors like solar variability, volcanic activity, ocean cycles, and clouds, why does "Skeptical Science" get to spend so much time talking about the potential *cooling* influence of those same factors?

Prediction: New Surface Temperature Record in 2013

It's an interesting, although inherently difficult exercise to predict how short-term temperatures will change, because short-term temperature influences like solar and volcanic activity and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are each rather unpredictable themselves.  Nevertheless, scientists are getting better at predicting future total solar irradiance (TSI) and ENSO changes, which are two of the largest natural short-term surface temperature influences.

Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) (FR11) utilized a statistical multiple linear regression approach to estimate the influence of these three natural factors on global surface temperatures.  We can thus use their results and predictions of future TSI and ENSO changes to estimate how surface tempertures will change in the near future.

...As Table 1 shows, 2012 may break the temperature record, though the prediction is well within the margin of error.  Thus if the El Niño doesn't form as soon or as strong as expected, or if solar cycle 24 stalls, or if one of the factors not included in this simple analysis (such as aerosols or clouds or other ocean cycles) acts in the cooling direction, 2012 will probably not break the record.

However, all three of the major temperature influences will be in the warming direction in 2012 as compared to 2011, assuming the El Niño develops as predicted.  All three may also be in the warming direction in 2013 as compared to 2012, again with ENSO being the main question mark.  Thus it appears quite likely that 2013 will break the surface temperature record, and quite possibly by a large margin, with a solar cycle peak and possible El Niño year.  There is also a reasonable chance that both 2012 and 2013 will break the surface temperature record.