Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Review of warmist Ian Stirling's polar bear book: "...his juxtaposition gives readers the impression that the dramatic ringed seal and polar bear population declines of ‘74-’76 and ‘85-’86 were the result of too little ice (rather than too much), without saying so explicitly. This audacity of this misdirection is breathtaking"

Of polar bears, polemics and … “climate warming” « The View From Here

I found in the book at least two instances that indicate to me that Stirling’s opinion on this matter is unreliable.

The first example is Stirling’s discussion of polar bear mortality events that took place in the Eastern Beaufort Sea from 1974 to 1976 (pg. 207), several chapters prior to the one on climate warming. Young ringed seals are the primary prey of polar bears. Stirling recounts that in the springs of 1974 and 1975 (and to a lesser extent in 1976), ringed seal populations in the shorefast ice dramatically declined and seal pup production fell by 80% or more — and as a result, survival of polar bear cubs “plummeted” (numbers not given) and many polar bear females were found in extremely poor condition (i.e. very thin). However, Stirling leaves out of this account one critical detail — that 1974 and 1975 were winters with especially thick ice development. He also leaves out of this discussion the fact that very similar polar bear mortality events, 2-3 years long, occurred again in the 1980s, the 1990s and probably the 1960s, and that these were all cold years with heavy ice (Stirling and Lunn 1997:178; Stirling 2002:68-69). While the repeated heavy sea ice conditions and cold are discussed in Stirling’s scientific papers regarding these events, these details are left out of the book. Why does the book present the events so differently? The answer is apparent once you get to the climate warming chapter. The 1980s polar bear mortality event does get a mention here, on pg. 285, but in the context of a discussion on progressively earlier dates of sea ice breakup over time. This juxtaposition gives readers the impression that the dramatic ringed seal and polar bear population declines of ‘74-’76 and ‘85-’86 were the result of too little ice (rather than too much), without saying so explicitly. This audacity of this misdirection is breathtaking.

No comments: