Thursday, December 20, 2012

Warmist Trenberth directly contradicts warmist Dessler: Trenberth claims widespread agreement that warming will exceed 2 deg. C; Dessler says warming may be less than 1.5 deg. C

WSJ's Climate "Dynamite" Is A Dud | Blog | Media Matters for America
With regard to the feedback effect of water vapor: Kevin Trenberth, a scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told Media Matters in an email: "water vapor effects are well established as an amplifier (strong positive feedback)." Abraham further noted that Ridley has apparently confused water vapor with clouds, whose effects are not as well understood. He said, "it is very clear water an amplifying effect. It is a very strong warmer for the climate" and challenged Ridley to name the anonymous scientist who gave him his information.

With regard to the rate of ocean heat absorption: Trenberth wrote: "On the contrary there is now very good evidence that a LOT of heat is going into the deep ocean in unprecedented ways, which completely undermines this sort of argument. OHC [Ocean Heat Content] keeps increasing at a fairly steady rate, just as sea level keeps going up."...Trenberth wrote "There is now widespread agreement that stopping global mean [temperature] increase at 2 [degrees] C [3.6°F] is impossible. Rather 3 [degrees] C [5.4°F] will be difficult." Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M, conceded that estimates of climate sensitivity for doubled carbon cover a range of outcomes, but wrote in an email that "the IPCC's canonical range gives about the right probability distribution: 2-4.5°C [3.6-8.1°F] is the likely range, with values below 1.5°C [2.7°F] being very unlikely."


Anonymous said...

All Trenberth says is that the "consensus" disagrees. He doesn't say that Fig 1.4 does not suggest that the GCMs are inadequate or wrong, just that the consensus opinion disagrees.

In other words, the consensus is no longer on-side with the IPCC position of the consensus.

A minority disagree with the majority about what the majority think.

Anonymous said...

"On the contrary there is now very good evidence that a LOT of heat is going into the deep ocean in unprecedented ways"

This kind off crap is ridiculous. These guys are killing science. Next they will tell us the little ice age was caused by an ocean heat sink that took all the warmth for itself.

There is no missing heat.
There is however missing data.

These guys haven't figured out it's the data they are missing, not the heat.