Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Settled science: Remember 2006, when we were encouraged to believe that CO2 would cause ever-drier British summers? A run of wet British summers started in 2007, and experts inform us that this run may last 10-20 years, or more, or less

Run of wet summers could last another 10 years - Telegraph
Britain has a higher chance of wet summers for up to the next ten years, the Met Office has predicted, after a new weather pattern was identified in the North Atlantic.
Stephen Belcher, the Head of the Met Office, said there is a “glimpse” of hope that the run of wet summers could come to an end within five to ten years.
The national forecasters called a summit to discuss the strange seasons in the UK after the freezing winter in 2010, followed by the soggy summer 2012 and this year’s cold spring.
The high level meeting concluded that climate change is a major factor in colder winters.
...
This “North Atlantic Oscillation” pushes the jet stream south...It caused a run of wet summers in the late 1950s and early 1960s and in the 1880s.
The Met Office do not know exactly what causes the pattern to repeat but predict it will last for another ten years. The current run of wet summers began in 2007 and usually the pattern lasts for ten to 20 years.
Stephen Belcher, the Head of the Met Office, said there is a “glimpse” of hope that the run of wet summers could come to an end within five to ten years.
“There are hints that in five to ten years it [the chance of wetter summers] could end.”
However, it could last longer.
2006: Drought, gales and refugees: what will happen as UK hots up | Science | The Guardian
Summer fetes are less likely to be rained off...Rainfall will decline in the summer...

No comments: