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Pause politics | Climate Etc.

Well, I’ve looked at the leaked AR5 material and I am holding off judgment until I see what they come up with in the final Summary for Policy Makers. But the ‘sausage making’ in all this is rather mind boggling.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea levels in Vietnam were 5 feet higher than the present 6,000 years ago

A paper published today in Global and Planetary Change reconstructs sea levels in SE Vietnam over the past 8,000 years and finds sea levels rose 37 mm/yr from 8,100 to 6,400 years ago to ~1.5 meters [5 feet] higher than the present, but dropped from 6,000 years ago to the end of the reconstruction 630 years ago.

Observed Rate of Global Warming Half of What the Models Predict - Hit & Run : Reason.com

It seems to me what the researchers are saying in so many words is that the current batch of climate models have not been validated using actual temperature trends. One possibility for the mismatch between actual temperature trends and the model projections is that the modelers have set climate sensitivity (response of the climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide) too high. As I have reported before, more recent research has significantly lowered estimates for climate sensitivity which suggests that future warming will also be lower.