Friday, August 02, 2013 This IPCC report may be the last one. Also from Peter Wadhams: "...not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer"

What climate scientists talk about now -
the average rate of warming was 0.17C per decade between 1970 and 1998 and just 0.04C per decade from 1998 to 2012, according to one of the main global temperature data sets.
Stocker remains resolutely confident about the robustness of the IPCC’s projections overall. “There is no other science and there’s no other activity of humans that looks into the future that has done so well as the IPCC,” he said. “Ask how well do the GDP projections fare for the next month. Ask how well do the projections of crop yields for the next year. Ask how well projections of DAX [the blue-chip German stock index] and all these other indices fare.”

Stocker’s view is shared by many of the thousands of scientists who have contributed to the IPCC reports over the past 25 years but not all. Dr Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, is one of several prominent US contrarians who have taken part in past reports but says she would not do so again. The process focuses too narrowly on human impact on the climate, she says, and requires a consensus about its conclusions that can lead to a tribal, group-thinking about the science. “This focus has ­essentially neglected natural climate variability, and has also neglected to assess potential benefits from a warmer climate,” she told the FT.
“It could even be this year or next year but not later than 2015 there won’t be any ice in the Arctic in the summer,” [Peter Wadhams] said, pulling out a battered laptop to show a diagram explaining his calculations, which he calls “the Arctic death spiral”.
...depending on what governments end up deciding, there is a chance that this one could be the last of its kind.

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