Does a public opinion poll on global warming mean anything?
The partisan polling of layman on what they think about complex matters and then representing the results as meaningful is absurd.
Outside of the voting context, “public opinion” is as dubious a metric as “mean global temperature.”
The grand irony, of course, is that if public opinion as measured by Pew mattered, we’d have had climate regulation long ago. But we don’t because, in the end, “public opinion” is just a charade.
Stars party on as we burn | Herald Sun
Everyone but Australia has figured out we no longer can afford the luxury of empty gestures.
And the latest batch of leaked climate scientist aimless, dubbed Climategate 2.0, confirm suspicions of something fishy about the global warming gravy train.
The most damning conclusion from Climategate 2.0 must be that the scientific consensus is a hoax. The emails show eminent climate scientists conspiring to have PhDs stripped from sceptics, to have journal editors fired for publishing papers that contradict predictions of imminent apocalypse, and colluding with the media to slant coverage.
This wasn't science. It was politics.
Gaming For Good: Al Gore’s Finalist Picks Announced @PSFK
Check out his choices below:
...Climate Trail is a game that lets players follow the ‘money trail’ tied to the dissemination of false data. Similar in style to the classic game Oregon Trail, Climate Trail is text-based. The goal is to reach the year 2036 with a healthy and liveable community.
...REALITY DROP, Arnold Worldwide, Boston, MAClimate change deniers show up anywhere. Finding them and fighting them requires easy access to complex arguments. This site makes it simple to spread science and destroy doubt. Climate news is prioritized by ‘heat:’ hostility, reach, sentiment and timeliness. Players can earn points by grabbing related scientific articles, videos, and data points, and pasting them into hot articles to blast climate denial into oblivion.
...CLIMATE REALITY PATROL, Parlor. New York, NY
The Climate Reality Patrol is where climate reality activism meets social media, gaming and rewards. At its core, this is a tool that allows users to instantly tag their online comments with Climate Reality keyword facts to earn badges and rewards.
Give us money or Santa gets it
The David Suzuki Foundation is the only group that seems to be aware of Claus's predicament. "Save Santa from climate change by supporting the David Suzuki Foundation," they exhort us. And when you click around, you find that the site is peddling all sorts of knickknacks. Yet the money is not going to Santa.
Hiding The Incline In Arctic Ice | Real Science
Government experts have been telling us this week that Arctic ice has continued to decline since 2007 at record rates.
...Actually, the ice is freezing at record rates.
Those who advocate the CAGW hypothesis should welcome such legislature — if they have nothing to hide and their results can indeed convince “97% of scientists” as claimed, then they should make it easy for those scientists to not just read their published results (working from hidden data) but to be able to verify how their work advances from the hiddent. They, and their “cause”, can only benefit from a completely data-transparent process if their conclusion is correct.
Collide-a-scape » Blog Archive » Collide-a-scape >> The Climate Middle Ground
Being in ‘The Middle’ has this almost mythic quality to some. In science, it’s often just halfway between a right and a wrong answer.
Emergency talks are continuing this morning in a bid to rescue a proposed climate fund which is central to securing meaningful resolutions from the UN's climate change conference in Durban.
At 08:15 AM 8/13/2003 -0600, Tom Wigley wrote:
Might be interesting to see how frequently Soon and Baliunas, individually, are cited (as astronomers). Are they any good in their own fields? Perhaps we could start referring to them as astrologers (excusable as ... 'oops, just a typo') Tom.
In our GRL article, Phil and I weighted the records we used with respect to their decadal correlations with the instrumental gridpoint surface temperature data for the same region (numbers in parentheses in attached figure 1 from the paper), so if a series is truly crap in an objectively determined sense, it got very low weight. The China series has a reasonable (r=0.22), but not great correlation--and it gets a moderate low weight. In my opinion, this is a better approach then simply deeming a record crap a priori (and then getting criticized for not considering it). We considered all available records with appropriate resolution that are putative temperature estimates, and weighted them objectively. We also did careful cross-validation on the resulting reconstruction using independent instrumental data, etc.---so I hardly think we are subject to criticism in how we used the available data, relative to other analyses that have been done... [Mann]
I loved this sentence: "Although a quantitative relationship between the proxy records of the Jinchuan peat, the Japan tree-ring series and the Taiwanese sediment records with modern climate data are not given in the original works, the qualitative connectivity with temperature as the dominant controlling factor has undoubtedly been verified" Oh, undoubtedly!! And these are 4 of the 9 series going into the "complete China" record.. Finally, they use another record based on "phenology" and (somehow) this provides a winter temperature series.... You just shouldn't grab anything that's in print and just use it 'cos it's there---that just perpetuates rubbish. [Bradley]
-How would you respond to the critique that, as a key part of the review processes of publications in the field of climate science, as something of a "gatekeeper," you have rejected and otherwise sought to suppress work that contradicted your work. Is this fair? Why or why not? How would you characterize your selection process for work that is or is not worthy of publication? [Anne Jolis]
I won't dignify that question with a response, other than to say that it betrays a deep naivety about how the peer review process in science works, and it buys into what I consider to be rather offensive conspiracy theories that impugn the integrity of editors, reviewers in general, and myself in particular. [Mann]
-Do you have a response to work published in 2005 by Hans von Storch that seems to indicate that the predictive capabilities of the method you used in your original "hockey stick" graph (which I do realize did not use the Yamal data) would not be able to predict current temperatures? [Jolis]
You seem to be unaware of the fact that there were two serious rebuttals...[Mann]
We actually eliminate records with negative correlations (this is mentioned breifly in the GRL article,), and we investigated a variety of weighting schemes to assure the basic robustness of the composite--but I certainly endorse your broader point here. Many of these records have some significant uncertainties or possible sources of bias, and this isn't the place to get into that. [Michael Mann]
...
It was a majority decision to leave the Mann and Jones 2000-year series in the Figure 1 (as it was to remove the Briffa and Osborn tree-ring based one) , and the details of the logic used to derive the Mann and Jones series is to be found in the (cited) text of their paper. Signing on to this letter , in my mind. implies agreement with the text and not individual endorsement of all curves by each author. I too have expressed my concern to Phil (and Ray) over the logic that you leave all series you want in but just weight them according to some (sometimes low) correlation (in this case based on decadal values). I also believe some of the series that make up the Chinese record are dubious or obscure , but the same is true of other records Mann and Jones have used (e.g. how do you handle a series in New Zealand that has a -0.25 correlation?) . Further serious problems are still (see my and Tim's Science comment on the Mann 1999 paper) lurking with the correction applied to the Western US tree-ring PC amplitude series used (and shown in Figure 2). There are problems (and limitations ) with ALL series used. At this stage , singling out individual records for added (and unavoidably cursory added description) is not practical. [Keith Briffa]
Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back--I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to "contain" the putative "MWP", even if we don't yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back [Phil and I have one in review--not sure it is kosher to show that yet though--I've put in an inquiry to Judy Jacobs at AGU about this]. [Michael Mann]
...When it comes out I would hope that AGU/EOS 'publicity machine' will shout the message from rooftops everywhere. [Phil Jones]
...Ellen indicated that she/you would like to get something published sooner rather than later. The Eos staff can certainly expedite the editorial process for anything you and your colleagues submit [Judy Jacobs, managing editor for Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union]
‘Force of Nature - The David Suzuki Movie’ - Review - NYTimes.com
At heart Dr. Suzuki, 75, is a wise old hippie who truly cares about the planet and the future of the species
Bill Clinton joins Obama to champion Washington energy saving strategy | World news | guardian.co.uk
Clinton endorses $4bn plan to renovate government buildings, saying it will create needed jobs and reduce energy use
Climate change: Third World reaps a bitter harvest - Telegraph
A scientific consensus is hardening that extreme climatic events will grow
more frequent and more severe as the world heats up
Things are so bad for the warmists in the USA that they now have to hope that radical German papers will carry the day for them. This is really quite pathetic.
Yesterday German left-wing online Die Zeit, a favourite among German “intellectuals”, attempted to bring the hockey stick back from the dead by granting washed-up climate scientist Raymond Bradley an interview.
The CLIMATE SCEPTICS Blog: It. Isn't. Happening.
[Monckton] I find myself with CFACT in Durban among the creatures of “consensus” for the annual UN climate gabfest. Yet the party line was wrong. At a recent dinner for the inconvenient economist Bjorn Lomborg in London, I first uttered the three fateful words that now fill the hearts of the world’s governing climate racketeers with dread.
“It. Isn’t. Happening.”
- Bishop Hill blog - Tim Barnett on the Hockey Stick
It's interesting how much evidence there is now that the Hockey Stick was known to be a problem. Perhaps readers can help collate a list of emails making this point.
People have to be persuaded to make sacrifices for the common good. ...But for now, the planet will just have to carry on burning.
On the Climate High End, Methane Time Bombs and the Lure of the New - NYTimes.com
the picture of growing risk from rising levels of greenhouse gases is best delineated by decades of work that is old and not contentious
Inhofe Laughs at the Annual UN Global Warming Conference
Says it'll be a lonely celebration in Durban, South Africa.
I suggest that Congress call in the Department of Energy administrators responsible for funding Jones’ IPCC work to determine whether they are indeed “happy about not releasing the original station data.” If Jones’ assertion is true, I suggest that they be relieved of their positions.
I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material, but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. It was pretty funny though - I told Malcolm what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating the response functions - he laughed and said that's what he thought at first also. The data's tempting but there's too much variation even within stands. I don't think it'd be productive to try and juggle the chronology statistics any more than I already have - they just are what they are (that does sound Graybillian). I think I'll have to look for an option where I can let this little story go as it is. [Gary Funkhouser, U of Arizona]
We want to avoid any accusation that you are trying to get people fired because they disagree with you. Best, Annie...Annie Ogden, Head of Communications, University of East Anglia
...Since Sonja retired I am a lot more free to push my environmental interests without ongoing critique of my motives and supposed misguidedness - I've signed my department up to 10:10 campaign and have a taskforce of staff and students involved in it.... Every now and then people say to me sotto voce with some bemusement, 'and when Sonja finds out, how will you explain it to her...!' The thought is whether we should follow the same course with these two at Anglia Ruskin and Oxford? I'm away tomorrow and Mon/Tues next week. Cheers Phil
Hat tip: AJI also sympathise with having a 'dangerous moron for a President' - indeed the world has gone mad. So let's make a difference in what we can do to promote justice and equity...
....This is Chris Harrison of CUP, who tells me that he met [Steven Schneider] at a recent AAAAS session on politicisation of science [Neil Adger, UEA]
Can I just say that I am not in the MBH camp - if that be characterized by an unshakable "belief" one way or the other , regarding the absolute magnitude of the global MWP. I certainly believe the " medieval" period was warmer than the 18th century - the equivalence of the warmth in the post 1900 period, and the post 1980s ,compared to the circa Medieval times is very much still an area for much better resolution. [Briffa]
...
It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or even Bradley after I warned him about small sample size problems) to realize that some of the chronologies are down to only 1 series in their earliest parts....Bradley still regards the MWP as "mysterious" and "very incoherent" (his latest pronouncement to me) based on the available data. Of course he and other members of the MBH camp have a fundamental dislike for the very concept of the MWP, so I tend to view their evaluations as starting out from a somewhat biased perspective, i.e. the cup is not only "half-empty"; it is demonstrably "broken". I come more from the "cup half-full" camp when it comes to the MWP, maybe yes, maybe no, but it is too early to say what it is. Being a natural skeptic, I guess you might lean more towards the MBH camp, which is fine as long as one is honest and open about evaluating the evidence (I have my doubts about the MBH camp). We can always politely(?) disagree given the same admittedly equivocal evidence. I should say that Jan should at least be made aware of this reanalysis of his data. Admittedly, all of the Schweingruber data are in the public domain I believe, so that should not be an issue with those data. I just don't want to get into an open critique of the Esper data because it would just add fuel to the MBH attack squad. They tend to work in their own somewhat agenda-filled ways. [Ed Cook]
Hat tip: AJ
We could be accused of over-representing our understanding and there will doubtless be an undercurrent of suspicion that WG II authors are not qualified to make such judgements on climatological matters. Are we prepared to defend ourselves against such (potential) charges?
(3) If we use something like version 3 or version 1 (including likelihoods), we must consider how this should be reported in the SPM. This is what governments will comment on this time around (some, but I doubt many, may refer to the revised chapters). We can try to revise the simplified Table we have in the current draft SPM. Alternatively, we could finesse the problem of consistency by NOT including a table at all in the SPM, but rather use some appropriate (weasel?) wording to describe the changes in extremes expected, which represents a compromise between the WG I table and Table 3-10..... [Timothy Carter]
Hat tip: AJ
ClimateGate FOIA grepper - Email 1438
The real problem arises when there is bias in the samples at a particular time that is not related to a climate shift - i.e. if one cohort all derive from an elevation that is significantly different from the mean, or perhaps all from a more boggy site so that growth was suppressed overall by this fact alone, then this bias will be imparted to the final chronology.
This, I believe, may be a common problem in long, poorly replicated sub-fossil derived chronologies, especially where the tree age is relatively short. ...There are people in this field whose motives or at least methods I have always regarded with suspicion. You two, however, are motivated only by genuine scientific goals....
You specifically asked for my comments, so here they are. I think (as does Fritz) that you have been able to locate 'extreme' sites where greater recent ring-width increases occur than are apparent in many other northern or high altitude sites. Which of the sites is 'typical' and 'of what' are the most pertinent questions. It is possible that your sites are the 'odd' ones because they reflect extreme sensitivity to recent warming or even perhaps to some change in another growth limiting factor, e.g. Nitrate input. However, where I think you and Fritz have possibly gone wrong is in adopting too rigid interpretations of what your data, or Fritz's data, say about global change questions.... What the subject in general does not need is sweeping statements, oversimplifying and partly misrepresenting each other's positions.
Hat tip: AJ
Hat tip: AJThe model produces less than 50% of its rainfall in July, July, August, compared to about 80% in the "real world". It also shows many years in which rainfall approaches zero in the rainy season. The proper validation approach would have been to compare a 20th century simulation with the observed statistics. Further, it is important to show that the model can capture the mean spatial pattern and the real temporal variability of the observed data. This was not done. 2. The model results are extensively "massaged", using what appear to be arbitrarily chosen filters of 9 years, 25 years, 45 years, 96 years and 101 years. This is compared with unfiltered observational data. What is the justification of these particular filters, how do they affect the results. Is it appropriate to do statistical analyses, such as spectra, on the filtered series? 3. As a result of all of this statistical manipulation, it is difficult to follow what the authors do. It is even more difficult to judge their results and its statistical significance. This is particular problematic when a major results is correlations for thousands of grid points (Fig. 8.). If this work were to be revised, much more attention would have to be paid to the statistical approach and to validating the results. At the moment I have no confidence in any of the conclusions draw from this simulation.
Email 951 - Keith Briffa, 1999
We need to and are, doing much more work to explore these questions and Hoyt's simplistic statement about borehole data reflecting only temperature forcing simply shows a naive at best and dishonest at worst attitude to the many problems that afflict these , and all ,palaeodata. I for one still believe that we are seeing the manifestation of greenhouse warming but I know the evidence presented to date leves many questions still unanswered . I too believe that solar variabilty is a potential forcing factor that has likely contributed to the variability of 19th and 20th century observations . The extent of the effect surely requires much more model-based research. Simply correlating Hoyt's series against observations or reconstructed temperatures does not get us far. I also believe we have major uncertainty surrounding global or hemispheric estimates of centennial or millennial reconstructions , and real problems with spacial patterns on long timescales. Saying this does not make me an outlaw in the palaeo family - I hope! - just someone anxious to maintain our objectivity. We should all resist the attempts of those who try to push us into the pro or anti greenhouse camps. I think Hoyt's comments betray someone who is perhaps lacking the degree of objectivity I had previously thought him to have.
Peer Review of Enhanced Hide-the-Decline « Climate Audit
The Climategate-2 emails show the “nature of the review” quite clearly.
I'm not going to comment on your text, because your report is awful. I thought you wanted a balanced report. What you've written isn't. You've not understood any of what was said on the Real Climate Audit web site.
You have several words wrong and what you say doesn't make sense at times. But you don't seem to want to discuss proper climate science.
Phil [Jones]
We believe we need a new word for morally irresponsible behavior that attempts to undermine through disinformation political action needed in response to very threatening human activities.
By: Donald A. Brown
Associate Professor Environmental Ethics, Science, and Law,
Penn State University
Dear All, This is biased coverage provided by the "World Business Council", attempting to provide a platform for the two contrarians here (Zachichi and Shaviv). Ben Santer, David Parker, and I have also given presentations and press briefings here, and the Italy media has been pretty good so far about presenting our side (i.e., the consensus view) on climate change. Look out for better coverage. Re, the Shaviv and Veizer paper--after seeing Shaviv present this, I'm now more convinced than ever that there is not one single scientifically defensible element at all to what he has done-the statistics, supposed climate reconstruction, and supposed "Cosmic Ray Flux" estimates are all almost certainly w/out any legitimate underpinning. Those w/ the appropriate expertise on the specifics really need to get a response out ASAP. My understanding is that something is indeed already in the works from Stefan et al... mike
Jan Veizer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In 2003, together with Nir J. Shaviv, an Israeli astrophycisist, Veizer published a paper in Geological Society of America confirming,[2] a reduced (capped) influence of carbon dioxide to Climate Change and attributing a more significant influence to cosmic rays. While the mechanism seems not yet to be fully understood, the empirical data showed a suitable fit.
ClimateGate FOIA grepper! - Email 2070
Congratulations on the AGU Fellowship! That's great news. I'm really delighted. I hope that Mr. Mc "I'm not entirely there in the head" isn't there to spoil the occasion...
With best regards,
Ben
PS Britain seems to have found it's Pat Michaels/Fred Singer/Bob Balling/ Dick Lindzen. Our population is only 25 % of yours so we only get 1 for every 4 you have. His name in case you should come across him is Piers Corbyn. He is nowhere near as good as a couple of yours and he's an utter prat but he's getting a lot of air time at the moment. For his day job he teaches physics and astronomy at a University and he predicts the weather from solar phenomena. He bets on his predictions months ahead for what will happen in Britain. He now believes he knows all there is to know about the global warming issue. He's not all bad as he doesn't have much confidence in nuclear-power safety. Always says that at the begining of his interviews to show he's not all bad !
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: About Those Skeptics
The debate over climate science is over and has been won by those who assert a human influence on the climate system.
When was that debate held, and who, specifically, argued that there is no human influence on the climate system? Who's arguing that there's no *butterfly* influence on the climate system?
There isn't any data at the N. Pole. [Phil Jones]
----
Why is there so much missing data for the South Pole? The period Jan 75 thru Dec 90 is all missing except Dec 81, July & Dec 85, Apr 87, Apr & Sept 88, Apr 89. Also, from and including Aug 2003 is missing.Also -- more seriously but correctable. The S Pole is just represented by a single box at 87.5S (N Pole ditto I suspect). This screws up area averaging. It would be better to put the S Pole value in ALL boxes at 87.5S.
I have had to do this in my code -- but you really should fix the 'raw' gridded data.
For area averages, the difference is between having the S Pole represent the whole region south of 85S, and having (as now) it represent one 72nd of this region. It is pretty obvious to me what is better.
This affects the impression of missing data too of course. [Tom Wigley]
ClimateGate FOIA grepper! - Email 2035
do know that Trenberth, [Dai's] co-author, is extremely defensive and combative when ever criticized about anything because he figures that he is smarter than everyone else and virtually infallible. [Ed Cook]
---
Keith [Briffa] indicated that you discovered a computational error in Dai's program that produced unusually extreme PDSI values in some cases. (Has Dai and that miserable prat Trenberth been told about this? As you might tell, I have genuine dislike for that arrogant Kiwi) [Ed Cook]
EU Claims Progress on Climate 'Roadmap' at Durban | News | English
As the first week of negotiations at the U.N. climate change conference in South Africa comes to a close, the European Union says support is growing for a new legally-binding agreement to cut emissions. But the United States and other countries remain strongly opposed to the idea.
Team ugliness – a call to get a skeptics PhD thesis revoked | Watts Up With That?
Lessons learned before COP17 - IOL Blogs | IOL.co.za
3. If you book into a sustainably-built BnB, your shower will be lukewarm. Embrace the irony of whining about this while attending a climate change conference.
ClimateGate FOIA grepper! - [Missing data --it once was lost, but now, it's 'found']
In the 2.10 database, this station had a lot of missing data, including 1973 to 1983. This would have excluded it from the processing because a reliable 1961-1990 climatology could not be established. However, in the 3.0 database, most of that missing data has been 'found' - so the station would have been included. [Ian "Harry" Harris]
Global warming: winners and losers in the Arctic's 'new normal' - CSMonitor.com
For polar bears and walruses, the loss of summer ice can put them at a disadvantage. Out of 19 sub-populations of polar bears in the Arctic, seven are declining, with two of the seven declines linked to the loss of summer sea ice.
DOE Can’t Hide This | Real Science
The 1930s was by far the hottest and driest decade in the US. Almost half of the US states set their high temperature record during the 1930s, and 80% of the US experienced drought during 1934 – compared to less than 20% now.
Climate Common Sense: Cowardly attacks on Canada
The Canadian Government is showing large cojones in standing up to the attacks in Durban by the Climate ignorati. Canada is now being made a whipping boy while the 40% emitters China and the US are doing nothing ,because it is easier to make poor old Canada a target and scapegoat than to offend the large nations. . Good on you Canada!
Suppression of climate debate is a disaster for science - The Globe and Mail
Environment Minister Peter Kent has done us all a favour by stating the obvious: Canada has no intention of signing on to a new Kyoto deal. So long as, the world’s biggest emitters want nothing to do with it, we’d be crazy if we did. Mr. Kent also refuses to be guilted out by climate reparations, a loony and unworkable scheme to extort hundreds of billions of dollars from rich countries and send it all to countries such as China. Such candour from Ottawa is a refreshing change from the usual hypocrisy, which began the moment Jean Chrétien committed Canada to the first Kyoto Protocol back in 1998.
C3: The Lies of Durban: Kyoto CO2 Emissions Controls Were A Success
In fact, the empirical evidence clearly shows the Kyoto Protocol to be an abysmal failure. Instead of reducing CO2 emissions by 5.2% of the 1990 base year, actual 2010 CO2 emissions were some 46% higher and 2011 emissions are likely to be even higher. The UN and EU experts predicted the 5.2% reduction by year 2012.
There is a symbiotic relationship among funding agencies, principal investigators, national and international assessment committees, and the leadership of professional organizations to continue the huge amounts of research funding. The results of this funding is often headlined to the media in press releases, so as to influence political decisions regarding a wide range of social and environmental issues, including energy.
There is no internal stimulus among these groups to change the current approach. Such change will need to be imposed from outside of these venues, particularly from those in government who oversee this wasteful funding.
Twitter / @kristenvanschie: #thatawkwardmoment when u' ...
#thatawkwardmoment when u're the only journo in a presser. And u're only in there because you were looking for a quiet place to work. #COP17
Taxpayer-Funded Green Job Losses Easy as A123 | National Legal and Policy Center
It’s another day, and another round of layoffs by a recipient of millions of dollars under the Obama Administration’s renewable energy initiatives, administered by the mismanaged Department of Energy.
Al Gore: Games Are The New Normal @PSFK
Wait a minute: I'd been planning to spend the 2020s searching for food morsels while treading water and tending to my malaria and kidney stones. When am I supposed to play games on my iPhone?
We are not 'spoilers' of climate talks: India - India - DNA
Brushing aside accusations that India was acting as a bully and "spoiler" during climate talks, its negotiators here are firm that New Delhi will not accept any new legally binding carbon emission cuts, saying its policy is "clear, consistent and compassionate" on the issue.
John Prescott: suspend the Kyoto protocol | Environment | guardian.co.uk
The Kyoto protocol should be suspended in order to safeguard its future, said one of the lead architects of the treaty, the former Labour minister John Prescott.
I can’t hear you « the Air Vent
This email demonstrates again exactly why hockey stick temperature curves are all crap.
Bo Christiansen wrote an email (copy below) on March 16 2009, stating in no uncertain terms, what I have written here dozens of times. You can’t regress extremely noisy data on a short series (temperature range) and then project it 2000 years into the past.
Climate models don’t have strong skill (as far as I’ve seen) at predicting yearly global average temperature. They do not (again, as far as I’ve seen) beat persistence. Thus, their predictions cannot yet be trusted.
A Reconstruction Of Unadjusted US Temperatures | Real Science
As you can see, US temperatures have declined over the last 80 years. The climategate 2.0 E-mails tell us that the DOE doesn’t want the raw temperature data available to the public. Here is why – they now publish only data which has had 0.6F degrees added on to recent temperatures, and about 0.1F degrees subtracted from older temperatures.
ClimateGate FOIA grepper! - Email 2036
The range of scientific opinion is quite broad on the topic of how much climate variability and change is driven by solar variations. Nevertheless, as more observational data and improved statistical analysis techniques become available, it is becoming increasingly obvious that solar variations are important. For temperature, many scientists now feel that natural solar variations were the main contributor to the early 20th century warming that occurred between about 1910 and 1950. The dramatic warming since 1980, however, cannot be explained by changes in solar output. [UEA's Tim Osborn, Nov 2000]
in the past five years, climate researchers have growing increasingly aware of how little they really know about the natural variability from which they must pick out the "signal" of human influence.
Obama's Job-Killing Global-Warming Agenda Continues Under the Radar - HUMAN EVENTS
Now with the complete collapse of the Kyoto process, there is no question that Obama’s global-warming regulations would be all pain for no climate gain.
Daniel B. Botkin: Absolute Certainty Is Not Scientific - WSJ.com
Global warming alarmists betray their cause when they declare that it is irresponsible to question them.
North Florida thaws after frosty chill
The lowest overnight temperature in Florida came in Crestview where the mercury dropped to 24 degrees.
Eight Warning Signs Of Junk Science
The worst example of this sort of thing in my lifetime, and arguably in the entire history of science, has been the AGW (anthropogenic global warming) panic. Now that the wheels are falling off that juggernaut, I’m starting to hear ordinary people around me wonder how I knew it was bullshit and hot air so much in advance…
Canada May Escape $6.7 Billion Bill By Exiting Kyoto Protocol
Canada, the country furthest from meeting its commitment to cut carbon emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, may save as much as $6.7 billion by exiting the global climate change agreement and not paying for offset credits.
Death Threat: Ministers Under Increasing Pressure To Abandon Green Energy Targets
The Government is under increasing pressure to abandon green energy targets amid warnings that fuel surcharges will put the lives of the most vulnerable at risk as they struggle to pay bills.
Investment banks are cutting traders and analysts in climate-related businesses as a slump in shares and carbon emission permits coincides with a deadlock in international climate talks. 'People are leaving the industry because they've been fired or because they see no prospects.'
Energy Tribune- The Confused Climate Change Consensus
It would appear that the much claimed consensus among leading climate scientists is not in such general agreement these days. If there really is such a consensus, then the opinions from leading climate scientists should be reasonably consistent among them. What I am seeing instead is an increasing divergence among the man made climate doom community.
Is anyone tough enough to push through an aviation emissions agreement?
The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) – the UN’s official aviation organ – is attempting to leverage this international antipathy toward the EU initiative by calling for global collective action on aviation emissions.
But to what end?
Changing climate of Republican opinion doesn't agree with Tea Party | Environment | guardian.co.uk
Among Tea Party supporters, Republican and Independent, only 30% see evidence of global warming and 11% accept it is manmade, according to the poll.
Among those opposed to the Tea Party, Republican and independent, a majority, 56%, see concrete proof of global warming and 28% say it is caused mainly by humans.
The world's poorest communities have begun to experience extreme weather outside the natural variability of African climate. Without a rapid reduction in emissions, the continent faces calamitous temperature rises within this century
Coal study names top 20 'climate killer' banks | Environment | guardian.co.uk
JP Morgan Chase tops list of institutions that have financed coal-mining and coal-fired energy generation
As Page detox center closes, exposure deaths feared
PAGE - A northern Arizona detox center closed this week, leaving officials in Page concerned that more people could freeze to death this winter without a warm place to sober up.
Suzuki vs. Santa : Canada : Canoe TV
Brian Lilley looks at how David Suzuki is frightening children and exploiting Santa all in the name of his green goal, dollars that is.
The North Pole is no longer safe for Santa's Workshop
True science : Prime time : SunNews Video Gallery
Tom Harris looks at the true science that often disputes the religion of global warming.
Fearing Climate Change’s Effects on the Adirondacks - NYTimes.com
“Nothing we see here is found at temperatures 10 degrees warmer, and very little makes it to five degrees warmer,” Mr. Jenkins said matter-of-factly on a mild fall day. “We will be in a climate that this community has never known in its history. One has to go back to world climate levels we haven’t seen in 15 million years.”
Federally Funded Arctic Stupidity | Real Science
We do have a new normal. Climate scientists constantly making completely unsupportable claims while climate conferences are happening in exotic resorts. These people are hoping to keep the money flowing in and will say anything to maintain their lifestyle.
Western Greenland Temperatures Have Been Declining For 70 Years | Real Science
This data is from the world’s number one alarmist – James Hansen.
This Is What Climate Scientists Call “Low Albedo” In The Arctic | Real Science
The view from above the pole would show that almost everything is covered with white ice, white snow, or white clouds. Snowcover in Eurasia is the highest on record this autumn.
A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN PLACES SUCH AS BLUE DIAMOND…SEARCHLIGHT AND IN AREAS ALONG NIPTON ROAD BETWEEN SEARCHLIGHT AND THE CALIFORNIA-NEVADA BORDER.
Snow for desert lowlands of New Mexico
6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT… 2 TO 5 INCHES LOWER ELEVATIONS.
Articles: COPing with Climate-Change Misinformation
Whether it's the socialist socialites splashing in the South African sun or the lunar-shot luminaries populating the Occupy Wall Street crowd, the constant message seems to be that the grand producers among us -- the industrialists -- are somehow out to enslave a workforce so as to enrich only themselves. Yet the ploy is the same old progressive standby of class warfare designed to engender envy and cause unrest among the hoi polloi.
The Reference Frame: Stefan Rahmstorf convicted as a liar
Major co-perpetrator of RealClimate.ORG and 2 °C limits found guilty
Climate Common Sense: ROFL -"Wealthy" Europe wants to pour billions into Green Climate Fund!
The European Union in the alternative universe they inhabit have suddenly found billions for a Green Climate Fund and are looking for more suckers concerned countries to join them. The real universe , where most of the debt-ridden EU countries don't have a pot to piss in, is completely ignored by the EU bureaucracy where their favorite ideology is concerned. It is no wonder the Union is in such desperate financial straits and it is laughable that they criticise Greece for the crime of spending money it didn't have. It seems that no lessons have been learned!
- Bishop Hill blog - Harrabin - an official response
The Tyndall Centre is a reputable research group and Roger Harrabin’s association with it, which ended in 2005, accorded with BBC guidelines on impartiality.
“Many journalists, including Roger Harrabin, have long complained about the difficulty of getting timely, clear responses from the scientific establishment to issues in the news like climate change. It is in the interest of the BBC's audiences for these issues to be properly debated.”
- Bishop Hill blog - On monoliths
Alan Kendall, the UEA geologist whose first-year course incorporated slides taken from Climate Audit, has defended the university's reputation in the comments on my post highlighting his scepticism.
Northern activists arrive at Durban climate talks - North - CBC News
“It's getting warmer and warmer and warmer. I used to come 25 years ago driving sled dogs . . . and it was cold, very cold,” said Sangris.
How Gingrich Landed on Love Seat With Pelosi - Bloomberg
...Gingrich, who was promoting his latest book “Contract With the Earth” and urging “green conservatism,” agreed. In an e- mail obtained by Bloomberg News that he wrote to the former vice president, Gingrich thanked Gore “for the opportunity to participate in the Protect Climate ad campaign.” He signed the March 2008 note, “Your friend, Newt.”
Those exchanges led Gingrich, now a Republican presidential candidate, to a chilly, rainy commercial set in April 2008, sitting side-by-side, knee-to-knee on a love seat with then- Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, with the cameras rolling. It’s an event he describes today as “the dumbest single thing I’ve done.”...Gingrich was warned by his aides at the time that participating in Gore’s “We Can Solve It” ad campaign could have dire political consequences...
“We rejected the initial script because it stated positions that we just didn’t believe were true,” said Tyler. “They wanted Newt to basically talk about global warming, which we would not do. At the time, ‘climate change’ was seen as a safe thing to say.”
EU earmarks €25bn for climate research - 02 Dec 2011 - News from BusinessGreen
Around €25bn is set to be reserved for climate-related research and at least €48bn will be channelled towards sustainable development
Study: CO2 drop drove Antarctic ice birth - UPI.com
"The evidence falls in line with what we would expect if carbon dioxide is the main dial that governs global climate; if we crank it up or down there are dramatic changes," Matthew Huber, a Purdue professor of earth and atmospheric sciences, said. "We went from a warm world without ice to a cooler world with an ice sheet overnight, in geologic terms, because of fluctuations in carbon dioxide levels."
You thought they were saving the planet at Durban? | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog
Why wouldn’t 14,000 people want to go to Durban to talk about saving the world from global warming, when they get to party, party, party ... and for free!
This gravy train won’t be easily derailed, with so many freeloaders having such a great ride.
Der Spiegel Slams IPCC Lead Author Rahmstorf: “Scandal Surrounds German Government Climate Advisor”
It appears the tactics of Stefan Rahmstorf are truly beginning to catch up with him. What goes around, comes around.
China and Brazil threaten to block carbon offset trade - The Irish Times - Fri, Dec 02, 2011
DURBAN 2011: CHINA AND Brazil have warned that one of the world’s biggest carbon markets will be under threat if wealthy countries reject their demands for a new phase of the Kyoto protocol.
It was “inconceivable” that the $20 billion (€14.9 billion) UN- backed carbon offset market could continue unless countries agreed a second round of pledges under the Kyoto climate treaty after the first round expired in 12 months, China’s chief negotiator said.
Interview with Steve McIntyre from the Climate Audit blog, who exposed the infamous "hockey stick", talking about the leaked emails that expose the warming scare.
[Phil Jones]Susan offered John Mitchell some advice, but that was all. She did get tough with McIntyre when he began requesting in press/submitted papers that were referred to in AR4 drafts - saying he couldn't do an adequate review without seeing them. He stopped once she threatened to remove him from the reviewer's list.
---
What will amuse is the paragraph about structured archiving. As you both know Keith and me work on the sedimentary sequence approach to filing!
I responded to [Chris Landsea's] earlier message in a fairly low key fashion. I think he has behaved irresponsibly and ought to be fired by NOAA for not have an open
enough mind to even consider that climate change might be affecting hurricanes. I am quickly becoming outraged by this and I hope it backfires on him!!!!
Kevin [Trenberth]
From: "R K Pachauri"
To: Cc: "Ulka Kelkar"
Sent: Thursday, June 19, 2003 7:34 AM Subject: Dear Prof. Hulme Dear Prof. Hulme, Thank you for your letter proposing that the Tyndall Centre and TERI jointly produce a series of yearbooks on climate change. May I congratulate you on this excellent idea! I am convinced that a market exists for precisely such a publication, and am delighted that you thought of TERI as a partner in this venture.
Please find enclosed the statement by the UN Secretary General:
18 November 2007
"If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet broke up, sea levels could rise by six meters. It may not happen for 100 years - or it could happen in 10. We simply do not know. But when it
happens, it could occur quickly, almost overnight. It sounds like the script of a disaster movie. But this is science, not science fiction."Ban Ki Moon
Secretary General of the United Nations
Kevin Myers: Climate change shrouded in a smog of 'facts' - Kevin Myers, Columnists - Independent.ie
Email is the swiftest and cleanest means of communication in world history.
But far more importantly for those who wish to swap ideas about global
warming and the evil USA, email has no beaches. It has no topless lovelies
with a pubic postage stamp for public modesty, with a pina colada for one to
sip upon while one gazes upon their winsome undulations. Email has no
nightclubs where delegates can gather after soaping off their weddings
rings, there to begin the smooch-n-snog-n-shag cycle that makes global
warming conferences essential for those who wish to save the planet
(naturally, I exclude the Hibernian delegates, whose austere and vegetarian
celibacy makes even Gandhi seem like President Zuma on Viagra). But if only
email had beaches, our eco-warriors could share their thoughts that way,
thereby sparing the world the airliner-laid carpets of stratospheric
condensation and carbon dioxide to Durban and back. But where's the fun in
that?
You might remember, it was 2003 when I made the statement that the idea that manmade gases, CO2, are causing catastrophic global warming is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. I was hated at that time, but now people realize I was right. That, by the way, is the title of my book that’s going to come out in January.
Michael Levi: Energy, Security, and Climate » How To Waste Money Fighting Climate Change
Think about this for a moment: a $5 million grant could have made this project economic. Through the magic of the CDM, though, Kyoto signatories will be paying Qatar $128 million (discounted to the present) for it instead.
And that is a charitable interpretation. Could QP really not have negotiated the capital cost down from $260 million to $255 million? That would have made the project profitable without carbon credits.
EU fights global warming in a cold climate | Reuters
Journalists are also staying away in droves. For Copenhagen,
media interest reached a peak of more than 3,200. Less than half
that number has registered to attend the Durban talks, according
to provisional figures from the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Month-long spells of 100-degree weather will kill more people in the New York/North Jersey metropolitan area, with the greatest danger in urban "heat islands" like Newark and Jersey City.
Coyote Blog » Blog Archive » The Missing Heat
it is pretty much impossible for us to imagine a new heat input to the Earth’s surface, like greenhouse gas forcing from anthropogenic CO2, without observing its effect in ocean heat content.
Since their re-introduction, however, the wolf population has exploded in the areas around the park. Wildlife officials estimate there are now about 1,700 wolves in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Oregon and Washington – about five times more than envisaged under the original recovery plan.
"You realize there is this Internet doppelganger that has your same name and your same place of work and your same publication list, but who is a monster who believes in terrible, terrible things," said Gavin Schmidt, a climatologist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. "It isn't anything to do with anything you've actually said or done."
...Other researchers were, as Schmidt puts it, "dragged kicking and screaming into the public realm." A prime example is Mann, whose famous "hockey stick" graph, showing a sharp uptick in Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the 1900s (a graph that was shaped like a hockey stick), became the center of a firestorm after its publication in the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report"That really propelled it onto the world stage as an icon in the climate-change debate," said Mann, whose upcoming book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines (Columbia University Press), recalls the controversy. "Any icon in the climate-change debate is immediately attacked by professional climate-change deniers. So we have been in the crosshairs of deniers ever since."
Mann said he was caught off guard by the amount of attention his work received, but said he quickly developed a thick skin.
"Early on when we were subjected to these attacks, a hero of mine, Steve Schneider of Stanford, who sadly passed away far too early a year ago, he took me aside and he said, 'You know, don't take this personally, what these attacks are is a testament to the importance of your work,'" Mann said.
Mann said that advice helps remind him that the debate over climate change is political, not personal. He says he sees most attacks coming not from grassroots efforts, but from industry consortiums trying to protect their economic interests."These attacks, they don't represent the feelings of actual people," he said. "They are so-called 'astroturf' organizations that will bus people in to try to create the false appearance of grassroots support."
...
[comment]Willis Eschenbach
Michael Mann? Your poster boy for the oppressed scientist is Michael Mann? Really?Clueless doesn't even begin to describe our dear Stephanie Pappas, who doesn't seem to get out much, and who clearly cannot recognize a scientific scam artist like Mann...
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog: A Journalist Fights Back and Wins
Meichsnner, believing that she had done no wrong, sued. The Cologne court then decided in her favor, concluding that Rahmstorf's attacks were unsupported by evidence and even libelous.
Interestingly, in the US, Rahmstorf's efforts to take down the journalist were uncritically celebrated by no less than the New York Times, which helps to illustrate both a bandwagon effect in coverage of climate by journalists who see themselves on the "same side" as the scientists and also the extensive deference than scientists are granted by the media. Given the court outcome, I wonder if the NYT will be correcting its earlier coverage?
...I have seen from the inside many efforts by a small set of prominent climate scientists to bully and suppress -- behaviors which continue even after the release of the UEA emails. Such behavior is seemingly emboldened by the protective shield that many in the media hold up to protect climate scientists from criticism, no matter how legitimate.
Swing and a Miss « the Air Vent
At 22:46 23/06/2004, you wrote:
Hi Keith,
I think the talk went well received this morning. Thanks a bunch for your input. Peck,
Mark Cane, and I all spoke in the paleo session. Hopefully we might have make some
progress in convincing NOAA not to cut paleo. Will have to see what happens…
Hope all is well w/ you. Talk to you again soon,mike
The Greenie Pig is on a (carbon) diet | Grist
But of the weight I've lost so far, the most hard-won was
the pathetic 1.7 pounds I earned by taking my cat to the vet without a car. I
know what you're thinking -- brilliant, right? The bus ride wasn't so bad. It
was the 10 blocks I had to walk, in the rain, clutching a carrier housing a
very upset and soon-to-be-diagnosed-as-obese kitty to the vet's office. People
poked each other and laughed as I passed, bedraggled and with aching arms,
amidst a chorus of angry meows. Post-appointment, I muttered, "Screw it," and
hailed a cab.
But by 2015, when (perhaps) the worst of the economic crisis may be over and the new IPCC report has re-awakened the world to the dangers that climate changes poses, it might just be possible.
TERI was *not* listed as a formal co-applicant (non-UK institutions are not eligible to be formal co-applicants), but was listed as an 'affiliated
organisation' along with about 10 others here in the UK. We would propose to do the same in the final bid, but say a little bit more about where and
how TERI would interact with us were we to win the Centre.
Rajendra K. Pachauri - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
He joined TERI as Director in April 1981.[8] and presently heads the organisation
(CNSNews.com) – A Vienna-based United Nations agency is pondering how to get by without one of its biggest donors, following a recent British government decision to withdraw from an organization which it said was ineffective and poorly run.
Global Warming Hoax Weekly Round-Up, Dec. 1st 2011 « The Daily Bayonet
A new study says global warming ain’t so bad, a science guy isn’t very scientific and Australia is going to be all alone in the kitchen at the international carbon tax club’s Christmas party.
The New Normal In Climate Science | Real Science
Fraud.
Imagine if a CEO announced that he had a big sales season, based on the fact that his upgraded sales staff had found a lot of potential customers. He would be enjoying life with Bernie Madoff at Otisville.
Suppose someone announced a “very active hurricane season” based on the fact that their new high tech sensors had found a lot of circulation patterns which they thought might potentially have turned into hurricanes.
The long, slow thaw? | Climate Etc.
A warming trend can be observed from 1659, the start date of Central England Temperature (CET)- the oldest instrumental record in the world- to today. It would be a notable coincidence if the warming started at the exact point that this record began.
- Bishop Hill blog - Morner on sea level
The sea is not rising precipitously. I have studied many of the low-lying regions in my 45-year career recording and interpreting sea level data. I have conducted six field trips to the Maldives; I have been to Bangladesh, whose environment minister was claiming that flooding due to climate change threatened to create in her country 20 million ‘ecological refugees’. I have carefully examined the data of ‘drowning’ Tuvalu. And I can report that, while such regions do have problems, they need not fear rising sea levels.
Why Climate Models Are Completely Useless | Real Science
The bottom line is that you can shape the output of a climate model to achieve any desired result, by changing your input assumptions of cause and effect. Any competent user of a climate model will produce whatever results he/she needs to keep funding coming in.
I just wish that Harry had more of a feel for what he's been doing. I should have gotten Harry to produce more results as
he was doing the original work. I assumed he'd gotten things right, as I thought it was just a matter of getting Tim M's programs to work.
He ought to have looked at the fortran rather than Tim M's comment lines.
...Phil
Flashback: Data horribilia: the HARRY-READ-ME.txt file
In other words, these are the guts of CRU's actual computer models—the data, the code and the applications.
And they are, by all accounts, a total bloody mess.
...
follow the trials and tribulations of Ian "Harry" Harris as he tries to recreate the published data because he has nothing else to go on!Thrill as he "glosses over" anomalies; let your heart sing as he gets some results to within 0.5 degrees; rejoice as Harry points out that everything is undocumented and that, generally speaking, he hasn't got the first clue as to what's going on with the data!
Chuckle as one of CRU's own admits that much of the centre's data and applications are undocumented, bug-ridden, riddled with holes, missing, uncatalogued and, in short, utterly worthless.
With huge reluctance, I have dived into 'anomdtb' - and already I have that familiar Twilight Zone sensation.
At Board today, Tim and I agreed to review the situation at the end of May and, if necessary, talk to Phil about some USDoE funding for Harry (he is already named on this).
However, the request is just as _valid_ as if it were from a Professor of Climate Studies, isn't it? It seems to me that if we protest about the position of the applicant we are certain to be seen to be wriggling on the hook, since he's probably been put up to it by a better-known skeptic?
I agree we don't have a squeaky-clean story to tell here, but the potential for embarrassment will rise exponentially if we struggle first..
Harry
Well at least he implicitly acknowledges the labyrinthine nature of the existing site!
Aaaaaand it's obviously not just me having trouble with it :-)
I suspect this is just another mystery-never-to-be solved; I'll put with all the others.
Have a look at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/ - particularly http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk:80/cru/info/warming/. We're looking at an
*unprecedented* acceleration in temperature, and it's not due to a sudden lack of volvanic eruptions. Even if it turns out to be
naturally-occurring, who's willing to take that chance? We should be trying to wean ourselves off of unsustainable energy generation and
use anyway. [Harry]
Are you happy for me to mention that you work at UEA in a news release to concrete about the elections?
Not particularly after last time (transport meeting) where I got flayed alive by the Director of CRU. [Harry]
If so, can I say you work in CRU
Definitely not [Harry]
and if not should I just put researcher
Well...OK but *no affiliation* please! [Harry]
...CheersHarry -- ----------------------------------------------------------------- Ian Harris - "Harry" Norwich Green Party Election Agent www.greenparty.org.uk/norwich/
PS Re CR, I do not know the best way to handle the specifics of the editoring. Hans von Storch is partly to blame -- he encourages the publication of crap science 'in order to stimulate debate'. One approach is to go direct to the publishers and point out the fact that their journal is perceived as being a medium for disseminating misinformation under the guise of refereed work. I use the word 'perceived' here, since whether it is true or not is not what the publishers care about -- it is how the journal is seen by the community that counts.
I think we could get a large group of highly credentialed scientists to sign such a letter -- 50+ people.
Note that I am copying this view only to Mike Hulme and Phil Jones. Mike's idea to get editorial board members to resign will probably not work -- must get rid of von Storch too, otherwise holes will eventually fill up with people like Legates, Balling, Lindzen, Michaels, Singer, etc. I have heard that the publishers are not happy with von Storch, so the above approach might remove that hurdle too. [Tom Wigley]
Antarctic is still a big mess - there are so big discrepancies that it is not clear to whom believe. Plus it is obvious that we do not know what is a climatic trigger of glacier advances in this region, response time might be huge, the reservoir correction problem etc. I will continue to study this problem, but at the moment it would be better just not mention it.
In this relation - I am getting more and more concern about our statement that the Early Holocene was cool in the tropics - this paper shows that it was, actually, warm - ice core evidences+glaciers were smaller than now in the tropical Andes. The glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere (Porter, 2000, review paper) were also smaller than at least in the Neoglacial. We do not cite Porter's paper for the reason that we actually do not know how to explain this - orbital reason does not work for the SH, but if we do cite it (which is fair) we have to say that during the Early to Mid Holocene glaciers were smaller than later in both Northen, and Southern Hemisphere, including the tropics, which would contradict to our statement in the Holocene chapter and the bullet. It is probably too late to rise these questions, but still just to draw your attention.
I composited Antarctic ice core temperature data (Petit, et al. 1999) with the longest and latest southern hemisphere multiproxy reonstruction from Mann, et al, 2008, to produce temperature changes for the past 10000 years.
The graph shows three things, none helpful for your purposes, I believe. 1. Temperature at a single site in Antarctica has varied alot over the past 10,000 years, even when smoothed. 2. There was a warm period about 6,000 years ago. This is well known. Whether warmer than today is still a research topic. 3. For the past few centuries, the increase in co2 has outpaced the increase in temperature. This is also a research issue, but related to the hypothesis that the climate is no longer in equilibrium. [David M. Anderson, NOAA, Boulder]
Why can't people just accept that the IPCC is right!! In Britain we have people saying that the evidence is accepted - we've won the war, now let's act!
I'll see if I can persuade someone to follow up on the Science editorial. I did talk to the journalist, mostly trying to persuade him not to run with the story.
Cheers
Phil
[Stanford's David Ritson, 2005] I appreciated your candid reply. My context is a belief that the climate field is losing and has lost a great deal of credibility over the years as to whether it is serious science. Practically any of my colleagues in the physics department would say that things are so politicized that they wouldn't know what to believe, but that, at some point, if you keep adding greenhouse gasl s you are going to have a problem. The handling of millenium temperature records certainly lends support to this cynicism. In the MBH instance virtually all the simple internal consistency checks. one should expect to find, are missing....I give M&M lots of credit for stirring things up but poor marks for their basic understanding and objectivity on many of the issues, and the same goes for MBH. What is so damaging about the current debate as to whether current temperatures exceed anything in the past millenium is the poverty of the work and, by inference, the refereeing of it. Final scientific answers seem out of current reach.
Mike, Good triumphs over bad - eventually! It does take a long time though! Maybe Ray P. wants to do something. He is more up to speed on all this - and reads French! Cheers Phil At 14:33 15/01/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
Phil, thanks for sending on, I've sent to Ray P. The Passoti piece is remarkably bad for a Science "news" piece, it would be worth discussing this w/ the editor, Donald Kennedy who is quite reasonable, and probably a bit embarrassed by this. ... Keep up the good fight, the attacks are getting more and more desparate as the contrarians are increasingly losing the battle (both scientifically, and in the public sphere). one thing I've learned is that the best way to deal w/ these attacks is just to go on doing good science, something I learned from Ben...
1) we bestow skeptics with scientific credibility and legitimacy
2) we give skeptics a free ride on our reputation and kindly provide them with the oxygen of our publicity
...5) we would do better to concentrate our resources on world class research and effectively communicating it to target and influential audiences, including journalists and the media
Dear Phil I am sorry that Peter was so aggressive rather than just sharp. Not really like that as you know. I think he got overenthusiastic because of the nature of some of the CCSP exchanges on vertical temperature trends between other scientists which have not helped the cause of gentlemanly conduct or clear thinking for that matter. Not a good example! The job of an IPCC reviewer at the ZOD stage is to make positive suggestions to help the Strawman along and not to be too critical. In the IPCC TAR at the ZOD stage we were fortunate that this was realised, though we did try and create this atmosphere in covering emails. I will have a look at the chapter soon. Cheers Chris Professor Chris Folland
...
[Peter Thorne] There is little effective communication in the main text of the uncertainty that is inherent in these measures due to the poor quality of the underlying data and metadata and to the choices made - "structural uncertainty". It seems that a decision has been made that RSS and the Fu et al. method are "right" or at least "most right" and this is what we will put forward as gospel truth almost. Other datasets are given a cursory once over almost. This completely ignores legitimate concerns that "structural uncertainty" is large aloft - seemingly reasonable choices made as to how you homogenise and then analyse the data can have very large effects. This is not at all clearly communicated in the current draft.
The very fate of the world may hang in the balance. Leaving that fate in the hands of an amateur staistician - favoured over the science academies of every major nation on earth - would seem a specific deservice.
Ok, then how about Marc Morano?
ClimateGate FOIA grepper! - 1999 Briffa email
I believe that the recent warmth was probably matched about 1000 years ago. I do not believe that global mean annual temperatures have simply cooled progressively over thousands of years as Mike appears to and I contend that that there is strong evidence for major changes in climate over the Holocene (not Milankovich) that require explanation and that could represent part of the current or future background variability of our climate.
Every skeptic (and taxpayer) ought to know that since 2003 (when we started measuring oceans properly) the oceans have been cooling: Douglass and Keen 2010.
The Press Association: UK 'not given up' on climate deal
Britain has not given up on a strong agreement from next week's climate change conference in South Africa, the Energy Secretary has told the Commons.
Met Office Climate Forecasts: Always Wrong But Never In Doubt
In August of 2007 the UK Met Office released a study that predicted that global warming will set in with a vengeance after 2009, after they implicitly acknowledged the temporary warming standstill, with at least half of the five following years expected to be hotter than 1998, which was then, and is still the warmest year on record.
An Arctic Wildcard Could Make the Climate Go Bust - Ecocentric - TIME.com
most of the science on climate change is dire and getting direr...Scary stuff. But at least things are back to normal on the climate science beat: vaguely apocalyptic.
We know why Ice Ages occur - Milankovitch forcing. The timescales are know. There is no dispute about them at all. Milanovitch forcing doesn't have any effect on 30-year timescales. Solar forcing hasn't changed in the last 50 years. We've had more volcanoes in the last 40 years than since the early-20th century, so we should be cooling. We are warming - and at a faster rate than ever before. [Jones, 2008]
And if the world was still warming in 2009, why did Jones refer to "lack of warming"?
Monthly average temperature and total precipitation data were taken from the National Climatic Data Center's 1,219-station Historical Climatology Network (Karl et al., 1990). Both unadjusted and adjusted data are contained in this data set. The unadjusted data are original observations that have undergone quality assurance checks. Missing data have not been estimated and remain missing. The adjusted data are the original observations that have been quality checked and modified from the original data, when necessary, to account for non-climatic effects and biases such as those caused by changes in station location. Missing data have been estimated so that the data for a station are essentially serially complete.
[April '07] Saw the Supreme Court ruling from Monday. Given those idiots on Climate Audit something to talk about!
Cheers
Phil
[April '07]: Justices Say E.P.A. Has Power to Act on Harmful Gases - New York Times
WASHINGTON, April 2 — In one of its most important environmental decisions in years, the Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the Environmental Protection Agency has the authority to regulate heat-trapping gases in automobile emissions.
Peter, Been to my meeting with the FOI, the Deputy Librarian and a couple of others. As McIntyre now has the data, can you let me know if you're able to determine when he might have got it? I don't want to get anyone in trouble, but if he got it on Friday, we can ignore the 48 requests we got between Sunday and today. We can say that he already has the data. I have told them that it won't stop with the data. They will move onto programs next. Cheers Phil
date: Tue, 22 May 2007 12:18:37 +0100 from: "Palutikof, Jean" subject: RE: Interesting thread on Climate Audit to: "Phil Jones"
How very unpleasant.
The problem is they are like rottweilers - they never give up. So the best policy from the TSU point of view seems to me to make it EASIER for them to access stuff, rather than try to slow them down by stashing it at Harvard/National Met Archives. Then at least we can get it all out in the open without having to wade through accusations of trying to prevent them accessing stuff.
Jean [Met Office]
======================== Dr Jean Palutikof Head IPCC WGII TSU Met Office
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 22 May 2007 11:23 To: Palutikof, Jean Subject: RE: Interesting thread on Climate AuditJean, I presumed WG1 would have a digital archive as well. I know they have been getting fed up with CA requests, but their action seems a little obdurate. FYI, UEA has just sent a final letter to one of CA denying them access to the CRU station temperature database, following their request under FOI. I have sent them some data from a 1990 paper - I amazing had this ! - but this wasn't enough for them. I sent rural temperature data, but they wanted the station data that went into the gridded products in 1990! They seem to have forgotten storage problem issues from the late-80s.
Cut out cases where we are leaving obvious low hanging fruit issues that interested parties with a political persuasion could abuse. We're better to avoid leaving ourselves open incase we suddenly find this paper at the centre of a blogstorm (Phil will attest to this)...We need to push it through internal Met Office review before it can be submitted. This means putting it under David Parker and Peter Stott's noses and our making changes to their satisfaction. On the plus side this soft review means less probability of heartache when we come to gambling at the external reviewer long table. [Peter Thorne]
Occasionally I get to the end of a week and have a little spare time. I then look at Real Climate and Climate Audit. Look at the link above and the story about the USHCN. I began to look at the comments and said to myself - how long will it be before the CRU data are dragged into this. Answer - not long! What Brohan et al were getting at was the issue you know well. Country X or Scientist Y sends some data - saying its been homogenized. We added this data to the database as it looks fine (after some checks). Most of the data were for new stations. They may or may not contain adjustments but we use them, and we don't have the raw data, just what we've been sent! I bet you'll get many more accusations of manipulating the data. The skeptics don't seem to want to accept that techniques get better and new ideas come along. Cheers Phil
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